21.8.26
Dear Partners in Thought,
Given the challenging geopolitical times we know, there is a new book that all should read. “Ten steps to prevent World War Three” has a clear focus in its title and was written by a man who was UK foreign minister, Defence Minister, Chair of the House of Commons Defence Committee and an officer in the Royal Green Jackets. Tobias Ellwood knows very directly about the matter at hand. The timing of his book reflects a new era of substantial wars led by Trump’s America and Putin’s Russia but also the aggressive Chinese approach to Taiwan and many major (but at times forgotten) conflicts such as Sudan. Existential and revanchist imperialism (with Putin) or the need to bring the focus on other matters (with Trump) are often the conflict drivers and do not result in clear and quick victories but in never-ending wars often with wider regional if not global impacts at all levels. A review of past major regional wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan share the same long waging and unclear outcomes, especially for the West and often for local populations as many in Kabul would secretly concur. More than eighty years after World War Two, many of us in the West have no memory, direct or indirect, of a global war as we now gradually realise the key always-forgotten fact that history can easily repeat itself.
As a senior British politician and geopolitical expert having served in several conservative governments, Ellwood provides us with a real experience and analysis of the impact of these key conflicts to the world and how we – or our Western governments – should deal with them to prevent a descent into what would be World War Three. He sees us in a multi-facetted Cold War of sorts that could slide into a global conflict we have known in the 20th century. Ten steps are then offered over 400 pages to manage and then prevent that potential descent into hell.
In his preface, Ellwood covers three past and future periods such as “a golden age of complacency” (1991–2025), “a world conditioned by insecurity” (2025–2040) and “a new dark age” starting in 2040. He wrote his book as global coordination weakened and instability rose also as the result of a withdrawing Trump 2.0 America that its allies could no longer trust and the rise of a pragmatic but assertive China many countries turned to. His preface showing a gradual descent to hell is not a forecast but a caution about a future that can be avoided if we learn from the past and apply the right steps to prevent the worst future. His subsequent introduction keeps stressing that the global order and indeed globalisation created post-Cold War has gradually weakened (if not yet totally collapsed), recreating a 1930s atmosphere but without a Churchill in the waiting. As Blaise Metreweli, the head of MI6, stressed a few months ago, Britain “is in a space between peace and war” as is the West as a whole. Ellwood’s bleak analysis of our times and the Western slide we all know makes it imperative to raise our game, which his recipe could help achieve.
The ten steps with their sharp headings (“our” and “we” referring to Britain but also the West) are as follows:
Step 1: Stand for something
We need to know what we believe in and are willing to stand for.
Step 2: Know your enemies
We need to understand the goals, fears and resentments of our enemies.
Step 3: Stop repeating history
We need to learn from wars won and lost.
Step 4: Spot the new battlefields
We need to understand where conflicts will grow and how they will be fought.
Step 5: Regroup with our allies
We need to back old friends and make new ones.
Step 6: Get stronger and smarter
We need to rebuild our soft and hard power.
Step 7: Move to a war footing
We need to align security and defence strategy while preparing society.
Step 8: Put our house in order
We need to strengthen democracy at home to counter growing authoritarianism abroad.
Step 9: Build the off-ramps
We need to halt the slide toward conflict and create conditions for co-existence.
Step 10: Reassert statecraft
We need to lead or we will drift into conflict.
This very rich book is drawn from Ellwood’s experience, but also from the accumulated wisdom from many historians, strategists, legislators, diplomats and scholars. It provides a journey into history and the many big wars the world has known for centuries, trying to draw lessons as to how they erupted and what to do to avoid them in the future. The focus is naturally on getting ready for war and its new features like cyber space and trade and information, as rivalries and regional wars will still occur – but also ensuring that overall peace prevails, based on a rejuvenation of the old global order we knew built on the ashes of WW2 with pillars of security, trade, law, and development to prevent a return to chaos.
International institutions like the United Nations and others helped deal with many problems the world faced in the past. Such a global order was never perfect, but avoided major conflicts, all while countries were interacting on key issues, usually in a productive way. There is now a need to update, strengthen and rebalance the world order we enjoyed and which was built on centuries of hard-won experience and too many conflicts. Similarly, Ellwood stresses that the existential danger is not war itself but the unbounded escalation leading to it in a less globalised world. Stability strengthens the positive aspects of world development based on agreed norms, rules and institutions. To Ellwood, the choice is not between peace and conflict but between shaping the next order or inheriting one imposed by others.
While I stressed the ten steps on offer and as the devil is in the detail, I recommend you read the book and enjoy the highly detailed analysis and Ellwood’s very pertinent suggestions to ensure that global peace, even if never very quiet, keeps going and we avoid his “new dark age” in 2040 after years of irresponsible and easier passivity.
Warmest regards,
Serge
Desperate Measures 