The seven take aways from the midterms

8-11-18

Dear Partners in thought,

If I may I would suggest seven take aways for the recent midterms as follows:

1. Many Americans still support DT, definitely among GOP and conservative voters and thus vote GOP for reasons of their own very often not especially liking the man but supporting his policies and not usually seeing their impact on the world (and sadly onto the US and them)

2. DT and the GOP retain control of most red states but waver in some states which propelled DT to the White House. Not a good sign for DT

3. DT and the GOP are losing the affluent suburbs and gradually the women’s vote nation-wide. Not a good sign for DT

4. The GOP only kept control of and increased their seats in the Senate because of the particular seats on offer (the one third of the Senate to be renewed) these midterms. Bad timing if there was ever one

5. Although the Dems scored a major House victory that was not a foregone conclusion together with seizing a few Governorships, theirs was weakened by “symbolic” defeats especially with the short one in Florida (Governorship) but also in Texas (even if O’Rourke did far better than ever expected, all the more as it seemed he could win early on as votes were counted, creating a hope that was that night, quite late, shattered) and the (still?) unsettled status of the top Georgia race (Governorship)    

6. The DT press conference yesterday, putting aside any peculiar style, was Orwellian in nature where “defeat” was simply “victory” in what is becoming a gradually accepted norm

7. While DT is actually heavily weakened on a nationwide basis (excellent side analysis of Harvard Law’s Laurence Tribe today), a sure way for him is to benefit from a radicalised Democratic Party and House that would focus on investigations and impeachment proceedings over the next two years which may likely bring the political process to a standstill, allowing DT to do more finger pointing come 2020. And potentially win.

I know I am partial but I encourage you to read the excellent analysis of Ed Luce and his Insights in the FT on what is happening and may happen in American politics and after the midterms. Great insights and style indeed.


Warmest regards,

Serge    

Serge Desprat- 8th November, 2018 (Prague)

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