12.11.26
Dear Partners in Thought,
The US midterms results were better than expected for the Democrats (and all of us worldwide). A real sweep for sure. We hear that it was a vote on “affordability” or against the Iran war but it was also and mainly a vote “against Trump”, even if he was not on the ballot (while he of course kept saying that he was). It is amazing to see what his second term without professional control and much team incompetence has been. He de facto highjacked the Republican Party and changed it into a Trump Party while the elected GOP officials had to follow him, even if at times rather stupidly and for role preservation, leading some (if not many) on the ballot, to lose their seats. One would think that the Republican part of the two thirds of the US Senators not running, like Ted Cruz in Texas, must be so relieved that they did not have to go to the voters on November 3rd. It would be interesting to know what Reagan or George H.W. Bush would think of Trump’s GOP with the key pillars of “free trade” and clear Western leadership having disappeared….
It has been amazing to see Trump pursuing the wrong policies all the time, like indeed the Iran war and its poor management or the unusual tariff wars, all the more as they ended up hurting Americans too (not to mention the whole world). And let’s not talk about the very long list of the “vanity projects” and the self-enrichment of the Trump family and friends à la Witkoff ($4bn for Trump himself in two years?) It was good that the word “corruption” finally appeared but it took so long. It is also interesting that while there is a great American love and respect for their institutions, many features are quite weak in their set-ups and helped Trump in some ways like the Electoral College, the US Supreme Court and key going forward, the freedom any president can enjoy on foreign policy even if the Congress is controlled by the other party. The list of regrettable Trump 2.0 features is too long and too hard to keep track with. And with Trump, it is never over as with his post-election offer to name UFC’s Dana White (with his fierce looks) as White House Press Secretary following the few days tenure of the previous wrong one. White turned him down while Trump unsurprisingly, if not fashionably, said it was a joke …. One would also hope that the aggressive Stephen Miller would have followed White’s decline when offered the position of Chief of Staff, a role he already practically enjoyed. As stated before, there have been too many issues with Trump that one cannot keep on top of them, which helped him greatly in his revolutionary management of the US and its impact on the world we used to know.
One can hope that Secretary “of War” Hegseth would be impeached, as it now looks possible process-wise, as he is a stellar example of Trump Team 2.0 with its features of meanness and incompetence, copying the speech patterns of the Boss when addressing the generals he has not yet fired. While the shortly disappearing Republican House of Representatives did not support the process just led by one (formerly) of theirs, it could pass with a simple majority with the new Democratic-led House in January. However, there would need to be a two-third majority to effectively pass an impeachment, which explains why the two previous attempts in American history failed. The only way to get rid of Hegseth would be his resignation à la Nixon in August 1974 or Trump finally firing him to avoid lengthy and embarrassing public Senate debates about the Iran war mismanagement in 2027. History will tell.
Another big loser in these midterms was the Big Tech elite (or Bros as they are known) who unsurprisingly backed Trump and his GOP with hundreds of millions, like Musk in his new Texas home, for ever-fewer regulations and more support while strangely (for them) keeping stressing the clear dangers of the societally destructive AI and keeping making so far business-unseen mega billions.
It was interesting to see the rise of the Democratic Socialists naturally seen as Communists by Trump. Mamdani, even if a New York City and indeed US game changer, seems very well balanced (unless one owns a $200m second home on Park Avenue of course). Even Trump strangely thought so when they met at the White House. Now NYC, LA, DC and Seattle have Democratic Socialist or DSA Mayors, which says a lot about the nature of the large American urban centres today. And seeing the key changes in Texas, Kansas and some Southern states is amazing given their traditional strong red flavour. Many thought that Trump was de facto a Russian agent or asset, given the files they may have on him and his often pro-Kremlin and Putin-friendly statements, but maybe he was working for the Dems if one may may be joking, which is a needed feature in our challenging era. As for the future of the Democratic Party and the US (and indeed our missing world order), Georgia’s Jon Ossoff would look like a very fitting candidate for the 2028 presidential race, also given the real need for new and sound blood in his party’s leadership.
Let’s hope that the next two years are manageable with Trump and his lame duck status, especially on foreign policy where he will still enjoy much freedom. He may realise it would be best for his legacy, a matter he likes a lot. While his first comment on the midterms results was on his ballroom, he already accepted the results (to some extent) and started to stress that he might have been too tough on dealing with immigration, which is also so funny if it were not so sad.
It may take some time for the old America with its great values and principles to be back but it should. And the world and especially Europe, that needs a sound NATO, should assist it in this key transition to mutually fitting sanity.
Warmest regards,
Serge
