17.2.26
Dear Partners in Thought,
I thought I would keep my focus on Book Notes dealing with the nature of our new geopolitical times, so would like to cover a new book by Alexander Stubb: The Triangle of Power – Rebalancing the New World Order. Mark Carney, recently known as a driven leader of what the West should be, following his exchanges with Donald Trump and his memorable Davos speech, has been very keen on Stubb’s “values-based realism” shown in his book.
Alexander Stubb is the Finnish President and one of the best leaders Europe can enjoy today in relation to leading his country and adjusting to our new geopolitical times. He draws on decades of experience in diplomacy with political, finance and academic positions that give him an unparalleled view of the world and the history of its order and disorder. His acumen also reflects the long frontier he shares with Russia, now as the leader of a recent NATO member. His book dealing with the current changes in our world order has been very well received by many foreign policy experts of all types like Jess Stoltenberg, Niall Ferguson, Timothy Garton Ash, Fiona Hill, Fareed Zakaria or Gideon Rachman.
His long introduction section covers the key features of international affairs as we have known them since the end of WW2 with the uncontested American-led post-Cold War era through rules-based cooperative multilateralism fostered by a unified West. This world order was gradually followed by multipolarity defined as “an oligopoly of powers” and now the emergence of three global power groups in the West, East and South, hence the Triangle. It is clear that the driver of the book was Trump 2.0 and its dislocation of the world order we knew to go back to a 19th century approach of world power rivalry, also with defined controlled geographies. The end of the world order we knew, initially confirmed by Secretary of State Rubio arriving at the Munich Security conference this past weekend, was already felt by most European NATO allies with the Trump threats of invading Greenland so the US could “protect” it and benefit from its critical minerals. To be fair, Rubio, unlike Vance at the last Munich conference in February 2025, did not stress European decay while promoting needed far right populism, but stressed the need for a stronger Europe so the NATO alliance could work to its best. To the happy surprise of many attendees, Rubio also gave the audience, likely unwittingly, a back and forth feeling à la Trump’s TACO with tariffs, in stressing his “we belong together” US position to European “friends” and allies of decades. Sadly, his following meetings with Fico in Bratislava and Orban in Budapest clarified matters.
Stubb meticulously covers the various periods the world went through since the end of WW2, with the ascent of the liberal world order following the Cold War and what became globalisation – or also peace through trade. He admits that multilateral cooperation is now gradually forgotten for multipolar rivalry and conflict, the Ukraine war being a clear and new example in Europe. Global norms that international organisations, led by the United Nations, set up are also eroding. He stresses that the need to search for a new global framework is made urgent as we live through a hinge moment of history, like in 1918, 1945 or 1989. A globalised world led by a UN spirit and clear rules agreed by most if not all countries in the world (whether they liked them or not) to contain self-interest is now indeed replaced by the three major power groups described in detail in distinct and very rich chapters, each covering politics, economics, technology and geopolitics and could be a book in itself.
The three mega-world players are the still-leading and democratic Global West (in a potential phase of self-destruction with Trump policies), the autocratic Global East (combining an existentially-driven Russia and a pragmatic China not always on the same page, along with the challenging Iran, North Korea and a number of African and central American countries driven by regime preservation or old alliances) and the once-forgotten and at times controlled, if not colonised, Global South (led by India, Brazil or South Africa and even Saudi Arabia). The Global West and East are often engaged in a fierce competition led by bilateral deals and alliances while the Global South represents the once often-forgotten developing world, which will also be the great arbiter and determine whether the future tilts toward cooperation or fragmentation. The coming years will decide what the new order will be for the rest of the century, which also requires democratic and especially mid-sized European powers – hence the EU – to help reform institutions and give a new life to multilateralism.
Stubb, who gives us a detailed course on the development of multilateral institutions and their historical benefits via discipline and not idealism (order requiring structure), is still very committed to its system, especially the United Nations. Recognising the weaknesses of such a system today (like the World Bank and IMF led by the West) and the veto-bound old-fashioned UN Security Council with its five permanent members selected in another age (even if many will like it), he quotes Winston Churchill’s famous line about democracy that “the UN was the worst form of governance, save all the others”. He feels that dismantling multilateralism will lead to chaos but it could be improved in its set-up, to ensure that the key Global South feels part of the decision-making and guarantees a sounder world order.
Stubb sees rule-based globalisation after the Cold War as a resounding success with its quadrupling of GDP, six-fold trade expansion and a billion people away from starvation, even if inequality and power asymmetry hurt its clear success, as seen today with the rise of mega-billionaires and one per cent controlling half of the world’s wealth. 9/11 made security more important than freedom and affordability, while the global financial crisis of 2008 did not help, also at a time when Russia changed its approach to world affairs with its invasion of Georgia, and China became more assertive as a rising superpower. Today, Stubb sees our era as one where we do not know where we are, not helped by the blurring of war and peace and forgotten invasions like in Ukraine, all the more so in (so far) peaceful Europe. He sees the various features of our increasingly broken world, such as energy, technology, currency and information, also used as a form of coercion in international affairs.
Stubb sees multilateralism as projecting and guaranteeing order, while self-interested multipolarity creates disorder and eventually conflict while pushing aside the small and medium-sized countries which had a say in the era of multilateralism. As such, he would like a more engaged Global South and a better-balanced Security Council. One of the main challenges facing multilateralism is distrust from many citizens living in democracies regarding their institutions that leads to an appealing extremist populism that also rejects international cooperation that is deemed as serving the interests of the elites and attacks national sovereignty. He believes that key features like dignity, dialogue and institutional reform should restore the legitimacy of international cooperation in an era of strong disinformation, economic insecurity and identity politics. Stubb addresses in different chapters the three dynamics of power as “competition” that may lead, if unhealthy, to “conflict” (also notably with hybrid warfare when not conventional) while it should promote “cooperation” on key issues like climate change, trade and security – in a rules-based world order suitably reshaped so all three groups feel heard.
“Values-based realism”, that Stubb promotes, is a compromise between naive idealism and cynical realpolitik. It is “a set of universal values based on freedom, fundamental rights and international rules that reflect the world’s global diversity, culture and history”. Stubb sees it as a tool to keep liberal values alive while engaging with those who do not share them. As such, he thinks middle-power diplomacy (reflecting Europe) should show leadership by example while also being principled without being preachy, pragmatic without being amoral and clearly led by dignity – all while avoiding moral lecturing. Stubb believes that free and democratic societies are the basis for national success while regional cooperation should be strengthened, reflecting his strong EU adherence. Lastly, Stubb, as he told the UN general Assembly in 2024, would want to expand the UN Security Council with five additional permanent members to welcome Latin America, African and Asian nations while eliminating single-state veto power and – key – suspending the voting rights of any Security Council member that violates the UN charter. Such an approach would have the benefits of the Global South adhering more easily to principles often shaped by the Global West, while the latter could point to China real-world evidence of the benefits that Western-fashioned liberal markets, capitalism and free trade brought to Beijing and its ample workforce. Russia, lost in its past, is clearly a challenging party to deal with but relationships could be restored or actually created once the Ukraine war stops, its responsibility admitted and international rules and order committed to – clearly still a rather hard if not unreachable objective today.
On a lighter note, and thinking about Stubb’s cultural background, we should realise that the Finns are the happiest people on earth according to the World Happiness Report. Perhaps we should all take Stubb’s recipe to deal with our drastically changing times: “Stay calm. Be a Finn. Take an ice bath, visit a sauna and reflect”. All without forgetting our values and principles and facing the world as it is but addressing its issues in the right and sensible way. On the same light note, Stubb is silent about the Trump-led Board of Peace with a logo that amusingly only shows the Western hemisphere unlike that of the UN with its full globe.
“The Triangle of Power” is definitely a rare book that could be multiplied in many more given all the topics it covers, going back to the roots of a world order we knew and is now endangered. It is a must-read to understand the issues we are facing today and what could be done to ensure an organised and peaceful world, hopefully also dealing with the governing features that are necessary. We should hope that a cooperation-driven Global West happily endures, all the more so given its freedom and democratic essence, even if it will never be perfect in its management, as no system could ever be.
Warmest regards,
Serge
Desperate Measures 