8-11-19

Dear Partners in thought,

As Britain approaches yet another General Election, this one one of the most crucial in modern British history at a time when the two main parties have lost their compass and are suffering from very poor leadership, I thought it was good to state a few facts and offer some predictions as follows:

1. In the absence of a second referendum, this General Election will be first about Brexit and not really about leading the country.

2. Many if not most voters will vote according to the Remain and Leave divide and no longer for a party.

3. Very few voters will change their minds from their vote in June 2016 and will therefore vote tactically. Doggedness will prevail.

4. For nearly two years polls consistently showed a majority (52% to 54%) for Remain, a trend that will be exacerbated by many would have been Remain voters who went fishing in June 2016 (notably among the younger generations) and will be at the booth on 12th December.

5. Leave voters, oddly and broadly combining pauperised “left outs” from deprived Labour areas and very well-off, usually baby booming, conservatives in search of an existential project, will vote for some to regain a perceived lost sovereignty and others to protect what they see as a lost identity (and hopefully “vanished or stolen” jobs) while Remain voters, mostly younger and by and large cosmopolitan, living in prosperous large cities, will vote to ensure Britain does not experience a steep economic decline and keeps belonging to a leading bloc of nations. The two groups will keep not being on the same page as to what matters with a mix of noble and hateful emotions running high in the Leave camp while hard facts and mundane rationality will drive the Remainers. 

6. Leave voters will either vote for the Tories or the Brexit Party, still impervious to the economic decline (already 2.5% less GDP growth since June 2016 according to the FT’s sober Martin Wolf) and the many years ahead of reshaping trading and related arrangements globally including with the EU. Remainers will vote very tactically depending on each circonscription in play. 

7. While the Tories are in the lead in the polls and should finish first, the combination of Labour, Lib Dems and SNP may prove to be fatal to them across Britain, while they will suffer from the Brexit “No Deal” Party’s presence in 600 circonscriptions (if Farage’s current approach is likely maintained), as they took the mantle of British right wing nationalism if only for tactical Brexit and strategic party purposes.

8. Jeremy Corbyn’s “socialism” and associated economic programme, that may also speak to many Leave voters in poor areas of England and Wales, may prove on election day to be less toxic than the Tories would like it to be, all the more as the economic costs of Brexit may be now more strongly perceived in de-industrialised Leave constituencies that were traditionally anti-Tory precisely due to past conservative policies that affected the very industrial tissue of their areas. Johnson’s lavish plans to increase funding for the NHS and the police forces, thus buying the electorate, may prove to be too little too late while Labour’s public funding plans, while also substantial, may appear as more coherent even if in many ways radical under its current leadership.

9. As we can hear today, Boris Johnson will indeed need to be very lucky to win an outright majority and proceed with his Brexit while Jeremy Corbyn will just need not be too unlucky to secure victory by depriving the Tories from a majority, leading Johnson out of Number Ten, and thus setting the stage for a second referendum. At the very least and if less dramatic, the most likely outcome of 12th December will be a hung parliament. 

10. There could be also a “black swan” that polls have not yet captured. If Remain voters fully vote on Remain as their key driver the Lib Dems may create the biggest upset in modern British political history or at least lead a coalition with parties largely opposed to leaving the EU thus changing the course of history as we have known it thus far.  

These ten points admittedly come from a French-born European who sees the Brexit saga as the worst self-inflicted wound in modern British history and a loss-loss for Britain and the EU that came to existence only due to internal political party machinations and at a time where the two main parties reached an abyss in terms of vision and leadership. Now history – and indeed the people – will decide somewhat indirectly though in effect very directly which future they want for Britain – and to some extent Europe. 

Warmest regards,

Serge

31-10-19

Dear Partners in thought,

We live in a world when most of us do not face evil. We live in a world of social media and what is supposedly best for us (well, not me, given my low tech mantra). Yet there are terrible evils, killing people in medieval ways under the belief that they have a greater agenda, usually combining religion and a redress of history. They are backward, uneducated people who lined up the worst chapters of our world history, perverting the message of their own, good religions and should be thrown to the wolves. 

Last weekend a team of U.S. special forces took out the leader of ISIS that I will not honour by naming him. He died by blowing himself up while killing his three children. This man was true evil, to a point rarely known in our times and his demise was just. That his remains were thrown at sea shows how gentle we are. His demise will not put a stop to religious fundamentalism and its associated terror but is a useful reminder that evil can and should be stopped, even in our dire political times in the West. It is also a reminder that we should not surrender and fight for our values with the appropriate resolve and strength.

It is a time to congratulate the U.S. President, whoever he is and whatever his style, strategic geopolitical blunders and loose commentaries about the operation. This success will not change the fact he should not run the shiny city on the hill. However it is a time to come together. We should also come together regardless of our religions and beliefs while rejecting those that see Islam, a peaceful religion, as evil because of Islamic fundamentalism and its terrorist cohorts. We can only defeat evil by being truly together. 

America, through its warriors, has reminded us of times we longed for and why we should never lose hope in the great country that built the West and the values we knew.

We can say we are all Americans – this week, for sure.  

Warmest regards,

Serge

24-10-19

Dear Partners in thought,

We are dealing with two disasters in the making for their own countries and the world: Brexit and Donald Trump. It is time to put a stop to them while focusing on the real reasons why they came to the fore. 
Brexit is the most self-inflicted blow in British history, dividing a great nation, lowering its long-held position in the world, drastically hurting its citizens economically in the near- and long-term, including mostly those who voted for Leave in the Midlands, Northern England and Wales, while seeding the end of the United Kingdom with Scotland and Northern Ireland being leavers on their own. When we hear that too many delays should dictate an end to this saga, the point is lost. If Boris Johnson’s deal is finally approved in Parliament, it should be accompanied by an amendement that a confirmatory referendum be held both on the deal itself and the option of remaining in the European Union. In the end, a referendum, while contentious, would indeed be the least bad option and would give the people a voice based on facts as they are.

Donald Trump is an abomination for America and the world that was built on the sands of Normandy. Too many Republicans support him saying he is “a devil but he is our devil” (I am being polite here)  while some of my friends say that it is about “financial survival”, forgetting the principles and values that made America what it is and should be. Principals and values should not be compromised, all the more as we need a strong and leading America in an uncertain world. Trump’s foreign policy is another example of erratic behaviour that hurts the world, some of us very directly, not to mention allies like the Kurds. America is better than that and we need her more than ever so a vote for Trump in 2020 is not an option even with if a  “socialist” were his opponent as Trump II would carry the seeds of the end of America and the world we know, not to mention possibly unwarranted war.   

Let us realise that voters who made Trump and Brexit a reality (hopefully not yet for the latter) are so-called “left-outs” who felt that foreigners and globalisation were killing their national identities and blamed the out-of-touch elites and “experts” for their economic and social declines. The problem is not with foreigners or globalisation. The problem is with the widening wealth gap that our world has created, disenfranchising many people, while making the very rich even richer, while totally neglecting a huge segment of our populations. If we want to keep that great capitalism going, we need to take a serious look at how we create and manage wealth, starting with reasonable redistribution, avoiding insane tech listings and putting the value of hard work at the forefront of revenue creation, lest we want to implode as a Western society. 

Warmest regards,

Serge

13-10-19

Dear Partners in thought,

The Trump saga never ceases to amaze as there is never an end to what this unlikely President would do. “How low can one go” is the best way to describe his presidency at so many levels that we lose count – and get used to it, which is also very worrying. After having very clearly asked the Ukraine head of state to investigate Joe Biden’s son and very likely delaying military aid to Kiev pending his request being processed, Trump bluntly said publicly that China should investigate the Bidens, son and father. This latest development is clearly an effort to normalise unacceptable behaviour and making it seen as “business as usual” and not such big deal after all (so folks, really not impeachable). Trump just told us that the interference of foreign powers in electoral processes should be deemed “another day at the office” to borrow from his famous line about Boris Johnson’s parliament suspension rebuke by the British Supreme Court. The Anglo-saxon world is not doing well with the Australian PM and his assertions about the coal industry and climate change so he could be reelected, also knowing that his help was sought by Trump along the lines of China. And it would seem that Boris Johnson may have been asked to help his US counterpart too though in the blond brotherhood of “Twitterdum and Twaddledee”, to borrow from the Economist, this is once again quite “normal”.  

It is baffling to hear Republican-flavoured pundits and commentators trying hard to defend the President’s actions in total defiance to integrity and rationality. They know his actions were outlandish but will hold the partisan line before the national interest (as we see in the UK these days with the leading parties). It makes also one think about what would be “really” needed for Trump’s core base to realise that things should not be done by the US President however the populist and anti-elite message is pleasing to their ears. On that point I think we are coming to a point where we should all realise that “education” matters, not being afraid by that feeling and that perhaps people should after all pass a minimum test on key, basic democratic and constitutional matters before being able to vote. This might be an elitist take though the one man-one vote needs to be protected by ensuring that democracy is indeed strengthened and votes are more meaningful on our dark times. Food for thought, however delicate the recipe and even if the Founding Fathers would likely approve were they witnessing the current debasing saga.  

The Democrats finally went for an impeachment process even when House Leader Nancy Pelosi was very much against it on prior occasions, this to avoid the victimisation backlash of such a dire process. However there is a point when the number of “in your face” transgressions become too many and the basic principles upon which a country, which has been an opinion leader among nations, are trampled upon. There is a point where principles, unless they become lost, need to be upheld regardless of the political cost. It is right to impeach Trump after the latest blows to American identity and the Republicans (with which I identified for many years) should be ready to lose their souls forever (and likely their seats in the future, which in any case is not favouring them) or do the “right thing” and show the founding principles of their nation still matter. Mitt Romney is an example of that kind of Republican and someone who should actually run for the soul of his party in the GOP primary, which I always though he should.

It was interesting to see that it took Trump’s incredible backstabbing of an ally that went to war “also” to defend Western interests when he decided to drop his support for the Kurds as they were about to be assaulted by Turkey for senior Republican officials to raise strong concerns about core US foreign policy interests. Not only this move strengthened a dubious “partner”, formally a NATO member, but also an autocracy today but it showed that being an ally of the US like the Kurds were (actively when fighting the ISIS scourge) did not matter much in terms of being supported by Washington, all of this putting aside the likelihood that ISIS will be able to regroup, as if it was deprived of Califate land, it was never defeated, lurking below the radar in the region and continuing plotting cell-originated upheaval. If Trump thought that this move would take Erdogan away from Putin, he lost the big picture that mattered and endangered gravely US foreign policy interests, something even loyal Republicans, like Lindsey Graham (who was so much better a politician when his friend McCain was alive) could not stay silent about.   

One recent event on the primary trail may change the dynamics of the reckoning process for Trump. Bernie Sanders’s open heart surgery (not to mention his recent family loss that compounded a dreadful week) may not put him in good stead to continue the race with age and health being a very challenging duo now. If he leaves the race, his supporters will largely back Elizabeth Warren, which is closest to Sanders’s views. There is no doubt that this would help Warren win the nomination given the composition of primary voters and current polls where she already is taking a lead over Biden in early primaries. There is also no doubt that Trump would much prefer facing Warren than Biden so he could depict her as “a crazy old radical lady” which would play very well among his core male supporters. It is a fact that Warren, while beating Trump in run-off polls, fares far less well today than a Biden or even a Sanders. Food for thought, if the main goal is, as it should, to defeat Trump and get America and the world back to a real “normalcy”. However and having said all of this, even Warren would win against Trump today, which must make Mark Zuckerberg a bit worried given the Massachusetts’s senator plans for redefining a more “equitable” capitalism and breaking up Big Tech.    

Warmest regards,

Serge

26-9-19

Dear Partners in thought,

It is sad it had to take the Supreme Court in Britain to stress unequivocally that the PM had lied to the Queen, Parliament, the people and endangered British democracy, writing another abysmal chapter in the delusional and unhealthy Brexit saga. Who could believe that Boris Johnson had sound reasons for proroguing Parliament? While some thought that the end justified the means and that a small dent into British identity, the latter so dear to Brexiteers, would not matter, twelve judges unanimously declared to Britain and the world that values mattered and democracy should not be ignored. The irony, otherwise so British in nature, in that good episode of an otherwise deep tragedy was that Boris Johnson dared launching the most damning attack on British democracy while purporting to restore parliament’s sovereignty and escape the clutches of a supposedly “undemocratic EU” led by “unelected” bureaucrats. We should rejoice at the Supreme Court’s decision while worrying that we are more and more subjected to these kinds of attacks on our values, which we now take for granted so tired we become. The sight of Donald and Boris, quasi-partners in crime and strange lookalikes, in New York during the UN Annual Meeting, was very telling, especially when the US President simply said that the British PM’s unanimous Supreme Court rebuke was “another day at the office” – even if we should excuse him, his mind being lost amid the Ukrainian steppes this week. 

This turn of events may or may not trigger a change at Number Ten. It should, but adversity is a defining feature of the PM, who thrives on it like his role model though for vastly different reasons. Boris will fight if only to go down gloriously in flames. However this judicial decision has created once again another opportunity for Britain to reconsider Brexit and eventually, Article 50 extension permitting, have a direct say on what the people “really, really want” to borrow from the once popular Spice Girls.

Warmest regards,

Serge                 

2-9-19

Dear Partners in thought,

Reading about the economic programme of a potential Labour Government, it is clear that Boris Johnson cannot believe his good fortune – at first glance. A Labor Government following a Labour win in a snap general election would confiscate GBP 300bn of shares in 7,000 large companies and give them to workers, while it would provide a “right to buy” scheme for private tenants and tax landlords more highly – all while creating the most leftwing economic approach (management would not apply) in modern Western history. When contemplating the two main parties and thinking about the demise of traditional Western parties (a previous Interlude) one might wonder what is happening to Britain between her rock and her hard place. On one hand splendid isolation, economic decline and reduced clout at all levels. On the other, probably the same (if Brexit, especially of the hard kind, goes ahead) and return to quasi-Marxist times led by the great leadership we know (covered in a previous Book Note). One may also wonder if Labour’s economic policy grandstanding does not hide a desire to stay in opposition so unlikely they would actually win any election on that extreme platform. Theirs is certainly not the best way to win a general election, even facing a Conservative Party led by zealots that lost its soul and moorings. 

Such a dismal choice for British voters makes us think about what happened in France in 2017. The two leading “government” parties that had commanded 80%+ of all votes for decades did not make it to the last round of the presidential elections and the unknown Macron was elected against all odds. Those two main centre-left and centre-right parties continued their journey to oblivion, gathering together 15% of the votes in the European parliamentary elections last May. Clearly there may not be an Emmanuel Macron in Britain yet. However the Lib-Dems, pro-EU (even if it might be too late), led by a woman (not only reflecting our times but going back to some good times for Britain), could become a Macron-like movement, seizing the opportunity presented by two abysmal parties that no longer represent the British people (“Extremist” BoJo “elected” PM by 90,000 party members and two-thirds of Labour voters being center left). Even if Brexit were to happen through the autocratic decision of a PM who played with core values that were Britain, a LibDem victory (with Green support) that would be backed by a moderate cross-old party drive could make a great difference on the future of Britain. And even if they would not win with an outright majority due to the tight schedule involved to get their message across, they could be a senior partner in a LibDem-Labor coalition with the junior partner having had to put some water in their Leninist vodka. 

The LibDems (with Green support), if given a chance and the great opportunity presented to them, could be the French Macron. 

Warmest regards,

Serge  

29-9-19

Dear Partners in thought,

The decision by Boris Johnson to suspend Parliament for five weeks at this juncture is clearly expedient in terms of getting his No Deal Brexit or whatever deal through. It also shows that Brexiteers, especially of the hard kind, who supposedly love “the will of the people” are ready to silence their representatives in what is an extreme populist, if not autocratic, move. Whatever we may think of the strange workings of the House of Commons, this decision sets a precedent not seen in modern British history and shows, in spite of some newspapers not wanting to see a tyrant, a move that, if it perdured, would blemish British democracy and its executive branch forever. Boris Johnson took a big gamble quite apart of a no confidence vote he will likely face. He has likely ensured that the Queen will stop that dangerous process and save democracy, strengthening one more time British monarchy and the Windsor family which often rise to be the best at the worst times in British history. The alliance of Buckingham Palace and the Mother of Parliaments will prevail and be an example, for Britain and the Western world not to mention the world at large.  

Warmest regards,

Serge        

24-8-19

Dear Partners in thought,

The Brexit saga may end in a No Deal as foolishly desired by the current British PM whose only ambition was to be PM for a party that put its interests well ahead of that of its nation (like the other party’s leader to be fair). It is time to reflect upon how Britain arrived at this dire state of affairs and identify the losers and the winners of what history will doubtless see as folly. 

Referenda are usually meant to be lost even if few would have thought the Leave vote would have prevailed in June 2016. Leave prevailed as Remain was a bad name, the benefits of EU membership were poorly articulated and the “fear” factor and campaign over-played to the extent it did not register with many voters. Leave made promises in the truest populist sense that were easy solutions to complex issues combined with superior marketing skills and slogans à la NHS. Leave voters transcended party politics largely with left-wingers, many short on facts and at times education, in depressed British areas, aiming at the EU capitalist plot while others wanted to keep the job-stealing foreigners out of areas where there were no longer jobs. At the same time well-off, right winger, tories, often retired but very vocal decided it was time to get British sovereignty back (however notional it was) from those folks who could not run a pub in Bruxelles. To be sure most of them were all good people, but they wanted to exist, be heard and either stop that dreadful, inhuman globalisation process or go back to Victorian times they read about as children. 

Once the smoke clears and assuming Brexit is enacted, Britain, if it has not really felt much economic pain yet (as many Brexiters point out rightly even if recent signs are not good) will gradually feel the blow in terms of jobs shifted to mainland Europe (finance, services), a much lower level of foreign investment (quite a few foreign multinationals cancelled their investments like Toyota or BMW) and a British pound declining further, all of which will have dire consequences on the financial standing of the UK, not to mention the City of London, once a preeminent world financial centre and of course all households. As Bill Clinton’s chief campaign strategist’s James Carville  famously said once “It’s the economy, stupid”. Dreams of glory or revenge do not make up for a lower GDP and fewer jobs being created as Brexiters, once they have what they wanted, will soon realise, many of whom wondering what they did to themselves and their country. So Britain is a sure loser at all levels, not to mention that the young who did not vote much will bear the brunt of the decision of their elders who will gradually disappear in the sunset haven enjoyed a rather good life. However Europe is also the loser as it was stronger with Britain in a world of blocs. Europe’s preeminence as the leading trading bloc in the world will be seriously affected while Britain will have to deal with its largest trading partner and live with rules and regulations it will no longer participate in shaping. Brexit is a lose-lose game for both Britain and the European Union – and the Western world generally all the more as America is led by an erratic, ignorant and dangerous President. 

In fact the real winner of Brexit is Russia, which may have helped the Leave outcome and will surely benefit from it as the European bloc and the West are weakened. Macron’s decision to engage with Russia this past week to solve the Ukrainian situation is a preemptive move that says that Brexit will happen. The other winner of Brexit, albeit to a lesser and indirect degree, is China, which also has to deal with the trade war follies unleashed by President Trump who is now wondering whether America’s worst enemy is China or the Fed’s Chairman, just if we needed to assess his level of sanity. One thing is sure, to paraphrase Lenin, is that the Leave voters, regardless of whom they were and what they thought they thought in June 2016, were by and large “the useful idiots” of Vladimir Putin and to some extent, quite indirectly, China. 

Warmest regards,

Serge