And then there were none…The grown-ups that is

22-12-18

Dear Partners in thought:

You will forgive my facetious use of Agatha Christie’s famous line even if we are not dealing with a mystery but a tragedy… 
The victory Twitters and laps of Donald Trump about having won against ISIS in Syria and bringing the boys and girls home to fit the America First ethos were bound to create a strong reaction and pushback from all quarters, including the Republican legislators usually faithful to him. One could only listen to 40 year old ex-veteran Illinois congressman Adam Kinzinger who was actually speechless about the news or Lindsey Graham who felt that the honour of America was under real threat. 


DT’s declaration and decision went against many statements put out by the various departments earlier in the week, including the DoD that the fight was going on, even if ISIS had been mortally wounded, and that there was no discussion about this. It was not also that a withdrawal of 2,000 servicemen would change the face of battle (it could not) but it would change the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East leaving both Russia, Iran, not to mention the Assad regime a free hand. A withdrawal at this stage and time from one of the hottest war-torn regions with competing influences would also signify a withdrawal of America on the stage of world affairs – perhaps indeed a fit for what Lindbergh would have liked decades ago. Oh yes, America First too. It was not hard to imagine that Jim Mattis, the eminently professional and level-headed SecDef would resign in protest in a move that says it all given its magnitude that goes far beyond the Department of Defense.


For those who don’t follow the amazing choreography of the Trump administration with its comings and goings (the goings are harder as the potential cast gets thinner as we approach 2020, particularly among those in their thirties with a career ahead of them), Jim Mattis was the adult in the room (or the house, you know the one with the white painting). I recommend you reading my Book Note on “No better friend, no worts enemy” by Jim Proser who tells you more about the an and indeed the Marine.  


With Mattis gone, after many of his ilk, we seem to be left only with loyalists who are precisely selected for that reason and accept the job without being really well known as they are usually not the top of the crop in any of their disciplines (so to it’s a great on the job training scheme as long as the loyalty factor is assessed to be strong). We now have a Trump team without the usually skilled experts seen in the US administrations who are respected for what they have done and can do. There is one exception with Jay Powell, actually an erstwhile Trump appointee at the Federal Reserve Board, but he is badly failing the loyalty test and has had to make grand speeches about the independence of the Fed and “doing the right thing”. In a preview of things to come, you will have noted that the potential replacement of Nikki Haley at the UN was an ex-Fox News presenter with little experience of International affairs before she got the role of Spokeswoman at the State Department (It also shows how critical the UN is for DT, which is unsurprising but should make the nominee reflect about why she was rumoured for the job). It’s going to be an interesting ride now there is only one pilot in the plane and we know who he is. 


On a silly note, we learn today that both the US… and the UK (yes!) are behind accusations that are likely true that China (or Chinese) are behind cyber attacks on critical assets including the US Navy, NASA  and other key infrastructures arguably in a drive to steal intellectual property and related secrets to advance their global leadership rise. The truth, that may be sad, is that nations spy against each other, including the US on its allies as we saw during the Obama Administration. It is a fact of life and it is highly likely that both the US and the UK are spying on China too. It does not mean that the West should not react and defend its interests as it should. It is just amusing that the news erupts at a time when Jim Mattis is resigning and Ms. May tries to show an independent and viable  UK soon ruling the waves. Everything is linked and timing is never innocent even if the point behind the news is perfectly valid…

Warmest regards,
Serge          


Serge Desprat- Dec 22, 2018 (Prague)

Why is the second referendum predictably looming

18-12-18

Dear Partners in thought, 

It is always wise not to comment too much on events that are unfolding so rapidly as with the Brexit process even if Ms. May “kicks the can down the road” in the hope of finding more time for the outcome she would like for her deal. So far and even if MPs have finally a say in the process (which they should), nothing has shown that the most likely ultimate outcome short of a No Deal abyss would not take place if one would be able to cut through the battlefield noise. A second referendum is looming more clearly as the only viable way forward than ever, this even if a challenging choice for many, including at party level and for different reasons, at a time where there is no ideal avenue. 


Ms. May struggles to stress that a second referendum, she now de facto acknowledges as a possibility, would create “irreparable damage” on the country’s politics and would be “faith breaking” as if to steer MPs to finally vote for her unloved deal, which she thought was the pragmatic antidote to No Deal chaos. Leave MPs seem to have worked for a few days on plans for a second poll (incidentally being potentially short of potential campaign officials due to the Electoral Commission’s investigations for violation of campaign law). However they are getting ready as they can also understand simple logics. While they would bet on many Leave voters to reaffirm their earlier choice, some of them as a matter of principle, they are no longer sure as they were in 2017 that it would be enough to win the day any longer as some Leave voters would switch on the face of facts while more Britons would vote this time, especially the younger generations. As the probable majority of the UK electorate would back staying in the EU at this point in British history, the Brexiteers would then make the vote not on the EU but on democracy itself, bringing the famed “will of the people” to the fore. 


It would be a great example of sophistry if “democracy” was used as a way to attack the very democratic ability for people in a free country to revisit a matter so crucial as the one at stake, having the ability to reassess such an existential matter two and half years later in the absence of any other viable option. “Democracy” should not be used to prevent democracy itself or enshrine an outcome that may not be in the best interests of the people without giving them the ability to revisit matters when warranted. Democracy should always give people a voice, which incidentally is not the same as guaranteeing any poll outcome. Any opposition to a second referendum today, that is superficially based on the earlier “will of the people”, is in fact derived from the realisation that the people have likely changed their minds based on a fuller understanding of what Brexit means. While it is fair to recognise the right of Brexiteers to try to preserve the result of the June 2016 poll, sheer politics should not deprive the people’s basic rights to have a direct say on such a key matter today given the light of events.    


Putting aside the deafening noise and the cheap fearmongering, it is highly likely that Parliament (the “mother of modern democracy” after all), when it finally is able to regain its voice, will back a second referendum, humbly and wisely deferring to the people to make the most important choice or indeed reassessment of their generation, this possibly with the three questions we know. The British people indeed deserve a second chance and only they can finally decide for themselves.  


Warmest regards,


Serge   

Serge Desprat- Dec 18th, 2018 (Prague)

A few pointers on the tailoring of the yellow vests

9-12-18

Dear Partners in thought, 


It is the fourth weekend of the yellow vests’ demonstrations and actually riots in Paris and France even if the numbers have gone down and Sunday was calmer (in relative terms) than Saturday. The yellow vests are still hard to understand but I wanted to share a few pointers on this seemingly unstructured but potent movement:


1. Born “from nowhere” through social networks, it is not led though it organises itself to “demonstrate” (and indeed to riot) while lacking a negotiating face to settle issues with the government, something that may not be a clear objective in itself.


2. It is deeply rooted in the French revolutionary ethos as seen throughout history since 1789. Deeply, it is an anti-elite and anti-(capitalist) system revolt though without viable alternatives on offer. It is a “scream” originally rooted in despair that is real for some, focused on the protest more than on any solutions. 


3. It has not one agenda, even if it started with an opposition to fuel taxes aimed partly at fighting climate change (now recalled), but expresses multiple agendas and at times representing individual ones. 


4. Each agenda is item-conflicting like with a demand for less taxes though with a request for more forms of financial assistance, all with a general utopian flavour devoid of any sense of economic reality as if the latter was besides the point. 


5. If one common feature can be found it is the frustration against the stagnation in earning power over the last ten years, the rise of (indirect) taxes, the big level of unemployment and a strong French attachment to equalitarianism through this time a scream for the re-instauration of the ISF wealth tax (equalitarianism over freedom and in spite of the French mixed historical motto of liberty, equality and fraternity) . 


6. It is targeted against the King or Président Macron and his “distant style” and liberal economic policies as while the French love their king and clearly wanted one in May 2017, they have short memories, hate reforms and also periodically like to cut their king’s head off, at times literally. 


7. Early demonstrators are gradually shadowed by “professional” street-fighting extremists looking for clashes with police forces leading to an unprecedented level of arrests, which in spite of a very broad but non-specific support by “two thirds of the French”, risks to be discredited and create eventually a popular late May 1968 backlash still to emerge. 

8. Russian hackers are deemed to have fomented fake news on social networks to incite riots in the same vein as seen during the British referendum of 2016 and US and French Presidential elections of 2016 and 2017. On Saturday, one of the arrested rioters was wearing a yellow vest with the Russia-supported separatist Donetsk People’s Republic flag on its back. 


9. The yellow vests saga is a process of “emotional contagion” enhanced by social network technology when people get involved without clear grievances but as they wish to join “something big” that takes form against “the system” which has been in many but at times vague ways unfair to them (all of this while France has a majority of non-income tax payers and one of the highest redistribution systems in the OECD).  


10. It is very costly with a loss of EUR 1 billion as the fourth weekend was starting and a blow to the retail and tourism industries notably in Paris which will result in less taxes that could be used to enhance additional redistribution. 


11. Traditional opposition parties that have not provided any real opposition to the government since mid-2017, possibly allowing the yellow vests to emerge due to the void, have not yet taken any real credit for the events as the situation is still too unclear even if a few politicians, such as former Président Hollande (looking for an unlikely come back) and Laurent Wauquiez, the leader of Centre Right Republicans (looking for a mere “existence”), made sure they were pictured with the yellow vest crowd or wore a vest respectively.


12. It will become essential for the elite (and the media) to explain to the yellow vests that a government democratically elected in a free country like France needs to be respected and is not changed by street riots as well as conveying to “them” the need to sit down and discuss their grievances with the government in a rational and reasonable way within the context  of the institutions and economic system as we know it. Lastly it will be key to convey to the yellow vests the fact that a collapse of our economic system as we know it and can improve would lead to their own real collapse and true pauperisation.


Things are unfolding on a daily if not hourly basis but I hope these pointers are useful to understand what we know to be the “Gilets Jaunes” especially in these times of Faulknerian “sound and fury”. Keep tuned for the official communication from Emmanuel Macron this Monday. 


Warmest regards,


Serge                

Serge Desprat – Dec 9, 2018 (Prague)

A reality check is dawning upon the great Britain

7-12-18

Dear Partners in thought,

As the 11th December vote is looming it is increasingly apparent as foreseen that Ms. May will not get her deal through Parliament. It was to be expected as a forgone conclusion that no amount of wishful thinking or Churchillian rhetoric would have changed. As the government stresses the long queues at ports, the likely shortages of key goods for consumers and the Bank of England assessment of a gradual 10.5% GDP decline that a No Deal would entail in a desperate hope to sway Parliament to back the hapless deal on offer that satisfies no one, one hears more and more the only dual choice available to avoid disaster: either a “Norway +” arrangement or a once thought impossible second referendum.

The deal proposed by Ms. May is one that was negotiated and signed with the EU after arduous discussions, where the EU spoke as one. It was not the product of a diktat as it is often referred to by those Brexiteers (already preparing to deal with the expected popular backlash of the consequences of a No Deal outcome) who would ideally have an “à la carte menu”-based exit (as if one would join my club in London but only pay for and do what one wants, which is not very British after all). There was no diktat from Bruxelles, who was dealing with a much unwanted exit scenario, and the agreement that was struck reflected the best deal “for both parties” and the impossibility for the EU to surrender its existential principles and risk setting up a disastrous precedent for the future of the union.

The EU will not likely renegotiate an exit agreement with Britain as it is simply too complex and unacceptable for it to do so. A “Norway +” could have been envisaged much earlier but the British team chose to believe it could have its cake and eat it too, making a poor negotiating hard line choice in front of a 27 member country union, its main trading partner and the largest bloc in the world. Wishful thinking ran amok driven by dreams of past glory only gradually shattered by a succession of reality checks, even with the hallowed “special relationship” with America. However, as stressed in an excellent wrap up piece of “where we are and likely to go” by Philip Stephens in the FT today, the European Court of Justice, through its Advocate General, has indicated the possibility that the UK could revoke unilaterally the famed Article 50 and rescind its decision to leave the EU. If that were done, as Philip Stephens rightly argued, then a likely caretaker PM post-Parliamentary defeat could ask the EU 27 to “stop the clock” pending a second referendum with the right questions and the better facts at hand for British voters, something we know would likely be given by Bruxelles in the hope that the EU would stay eventually stronger.

This second referendum option, which has always been unfashionably the more logical one for a while and is gaining increasing momentum,  even considering the ire of some of the Brexiteers, would be the less bad (and I dare say even the best) of all options for Britain. Rather than a blow against the much heralded “will of the people”, this avenue would strengthen democracy in giving Britons a new shot, after two and half years of a revealing process and knowing the outcomes far better, at a more sensible choice of their very future. It would also allow the younger age group to take more possession of their future, something they did not in June 2016. A second referendum would not provide a foregone conclusion in terms of outcome, even if a majority leans Remain today but it would give an opportunity for an outcome that would have to be accepted by all. Even a Remain win would entail discussions with the EU for the next steps though with the likelihood that the latter would show flexibility to keep the former “in” on good terms for Britain as a win-win outcome. The UK would then stay in the EU with its people knowing far better all the key strengths the great nation derives from “being” in this great bloc and would be able to keep influencing it as it has done with success in the past. In many ways, this Brexit process would also be a valuable experience that many other EU members would learn from as we keep growing together as the leading bloc in the world.

Warmest regards,

Serge


Serge Desprat – Dec 7, 2018 (Prague)

Is Paris burning?

1-12-18

 
Dear Partners in thought,
 
Those who remember the great movie of the early sixties, partner of “The Longest Day”, will forgive me but these burning sights of the City of Lights and the Champs Elysées as a war zone these pas three weekends are unusual even for a challenging country like France that has much liked its revolutions since 1789.
 
While the 1790s, 1848 and 1968, not to mention the many times of instability like during the Algerian events of sixty years ago, have been traditional features of French history and a French trait of character, earning them the moniker of râleurs (moaners), the current events in the streets of Paris and France are puzzling. While the so-called “Gilets jaunes” (yellow vests more than waistcoats or cardigans) may have justifiable reasons to complain about the gas price hikes, especially when living in rural areas – not caring much about fighting the environment even if only a small portion of the tax would be allocated to this – their movement, which mirrors in some ways Five Stars in Italy, is hard to understand as to its dynamics or leadership. Their demands, expressed violently in what some find now an acceptable norm “as we see it elsewhere”, are also conflicting as aimed at getting everything at the some time – like less taxes and more State aid. It is assumed by the pundits to be non-political as if not pushed by any political party or pressure group. It is organised and led somehow but has no clear leaders. It is vehemently and indeed violently vocal but comes short when invited to discuss matters with the government it stands opposed to (only two representatives of the “Gillets Jaunes” showed up to a high level meeting with the government, one of them leaving after minutes).
 
While Président Macron is now unpopular (as all French Présidents eventually are) though determined to keep his course, this “Gilets Jaunes” situation was born as the regular political opposition has been non-existent in their force of counter-proposition. The only opposition for months has been of the populist kind both on the extreme left and extreme right though with no credible programmes on offer, while traditional parties have been swallowed up in the electoral tsunami of May 2017, notably the once formidable Socialist Party. If anything these current developments show the key democratic necessity of having a regular opposition able to have a dialogue with and indeed oppose the government in power, in France and elsewhere. One silver lining for the French government is that the amateurish and violent ways of the “Gilets Jaunes” will demean their message and eventually discredit them with the French people as they did in late May 1968 likely supporting the government to end the perduring chaos in the streets.
 
Warmest regards,
 
Serge
 
 
Serge Desprat- Dec 1st, 2018 (Prague)
 
 

Ongoing reflections on the incredible Brexit saga

27-11-18

Dear Partners in thought,


Following the signing of the current deal with the EU, I noticed Ms. May’s soon to be tour of the four nations of Britain which seems a bit odd as surely she knows it is the Parliament that must vote on the deal (I am being facetious) and not the nation. If wanting to get the support directly from the people, one could wonder (as some reader in the FT today rightly did) why she does not go for a second referendum with three questions (current deal , no deal and…yes remaining). If I were an MP I would not be too pleased to see my PM trying to exert pressure on my vote in that way. It is all the more odd as only between 15% and 22% of Britons support her now signed deal (with more preferring the No Deal route, terrifyingly) while Ms. May is getting more popular due to her doggedness and resiliency as she pushes a lost cause deal, showing perhaps the national admiration for the very rooted British trait of standing tough against all adversity. 


I was reading Gideon Rachman’s op-ed in the FT today where as a sensible Remainer at heart he finally express his support for the current deal which, if not good for sure, is the best one could get. I seem to remember he was at some point talking about a second referendum but now feels that it could bring “partisan bitterness and civil war”, something I hear from other reasonable people. I think that while a second referendum would clearly upset some, it is still the best outcome of all as it gives back the voice to all voters who can at last choose in a more educated way for some, likely post-Parliamentary rejection, between a “No Deal” and “Remain” based on facts and not promises. Also fearing partisan bitterness and even civil war as the extreme Brexiteers and populist activists usually speak louder and could be more violent than the Remainers, thus more prone to a civil war “of sorts” (even if I feel the latter way overstated) is not really an argument, also as after all leaving in a no deal manner could be an option and stick to vox populi “today”. Democracy would be respected and people could choose “today”. I humbly think the British people should not surrender principles and what is best for them just because it might be an easier and less painful path societally. This is not British history, fortunately for many of us in Europe.

Warmest regards,


Serge  

 

Serge- Nov 27, 2018 (Prague) 

 

Winners Take All – Anand Giridharadas

 27-11-2018

Dear Partners in thought,

I would like to talk to you about “Winners Take All” from Anand Giridharadas, a book focused on “the elite charade of changing the world” as stressed by its sub-title. Although not presented as such, this book is de facto an insider’s investigation on how the global elite efforts “to change the world” through setting up their own programs, charities, foundations and the likes actually change nothing or not much and preserve the status quo, obscuring, according to AG, their role in causing the problems they later seek to solve. This book is about the global elite, the power of money, the desire to change the world that may be motivated by a range of noble and also selfish reasons, the increasing societal divide and the rise of populism triggered by a backlash against this elite and their galaxy in spite of their many efforts to change the world in ways that some like AG find less than sincere. It makes readers reflect more deeply about the “do gooding” of the global elite that has naturally been always well received in modern times but might be for some a smokescreen to hide the original sins of social inequality globally. If anything this book is a great basis for a needed debate.

AG, whom I discovered on CNN’s Fareed Zakaria’s weekly GPS (one of my favorite shows for its overall set-up, the quality of Fareed’s insights and the high caliber of his guests) last September, is teaching journalism at NYU and is a contributor on the main stage of TED. A recipient of the Pointer Fellowship at Yale and of the New York Library’s Helen Bernstein Award, he was a foreign correspondant for the New York Times from 2005 to 2016 and has written for the New Yorker and The New Republic. An Aspen Institute Fellow and an analyst for MSNBC, he started his career as an analyst at McKinsey which his bright mind, sharp thinking and 21st century “bright new world speak” easily shows.

AG draws a very contrasting view of our world to set the stage for his book. America (the book is US-centred) leads medicine, genetic and biomedical advancements while the average American health remains relatively poor compared to that of peers in the Western world and life expectancy actually declines in some years. America creates new learning ways via video and internet while children test more poorly in reading than in 1992. America becomes “European” in the quality of its food yet obesity and related conditions keep rising. Everybody can access a wider tech toolset to becoming entrepreneurs yet there are markedly much fewer of them than in the 1980s. In spite of Amazon and its online bookstore and Google having coded 25 million books, illiteracy stays the same and less and less Americans read a book a year. AG feels that in spite of all the tech-driven societal advancements America’s “progress machine” allowing people to better their lives have benefitted only a very fortunate minority that was already socially on top with the average pre-tax income of the top tenth nearly doubling since 1980 (seven times for the top 0.001 percent) whereas the bottom half of Americans or 117 m individuals stayed the same, at times mirroring conditions known in the poorest emerging countries (like for life expectancy of poor American males) in spite of 35 years of breathtaking changes mostly led by a continuing tech revolution. In simple terms, the picture shows the 10 percent group owning 90 percent of the wealth. AG provides a long list of similar conclusions which has led many millions of Americans, on the left and right, feeling that the game has been rigged for a very long time, leading to a constant condemnation of the system, a blow to the American dream and the rise of different streams of populism.

AG’s focus is thus on the elite who have decided to take ownership of and manage societal inequality issues using their business approach and while being the beneficiaries of the system they have created. They want to do good to correct the wrongs that they often engineered however unwittingly in the pursuit of their lives and activities. AG goes on a journey into this elite world, notably tech entrepreneurs who amassed fortunes and see a world changing role for themselves, exploring their rationale, and the do gooding galaxy of individuals who created a life for themselves assisting these aspiring existential game-changers.

The common theme of all the exchanges which AG had with various figures for his book is that they are indeed “grappling with powerful myths” that have promoted a unique power concentration in our times, allowing “the elite’s private, partial and self-promotional deeds to pass for real change and leading many “decent winners” believing that doing well by doing good was an adequate solution in an age of exclusion, making them feel better in terms of protecting their own privileges while averting more meaningful change to the status quo.

AG starts telling us about Hilary Cohen a Houston born and raised 2014 graduate from Georgetown at a time when she had to decide what to do after college, looking at management consulting, the rabbinate and the non-profit world. Hilary is representative of the young elite American college students stirred by a desire to “change things” though this time through capitalism and market solutions rather than government, creating a new approach to solving social inequality. Investment committees and driven entrepreneurship start mattering more than sheer democratically-flavored social and political actions of older days. Business encourages this trend awarding scholarships to these elite students to make them focus on “doing good” while “doing well”. One example is Georgetown’s Baker Scholarship named after the founder of Citbank and de facto maker of Harvard Business School and targeted at liberal arts students which Hilary obtains in her senior year. The era of “social” everything dawns on elite campuses: social innovation, social business, social enterprise and of course social and impact investing. Business language starts permeating the sphere of social change with “fostering innovation and providing unique skill sets”, “engaging global leaders to drive social change at scale” or “leveraging the power of capital, data, technology and innovation to improve people’s lives”, all messages that resonate with students like Hilary and equipping them for their new life missions. When Hilary receives an offer to join McKinsey, arguably the leading strategy consulting firm in the world, she does not know what to do in spite of the firm’s strong social message, wondering if she really would fulfil her desire to “doing good” by working on the problems of McKinsey’s corporate clients.

In finally taking that job, Hilary joins what AG calls MarketWorld, which is an ascendant power elite that is defined by concurrent drives to do well and to do good and focused on free market and voluntary action to solve societal issues. MarketWorld that recruits among the best is a combination of “enlightened business people and their collaborators in the universes of charity, academia, media, government and think tanks”. Their thinkers become “thought leaders” and they have their own language and territories, the latter being the famed global elite conferences around the world such as Davos (The World Economic Forum) or Aspen (The Aspen Institute), promoting the culture and state of mind that make them a global network and a community. To MarketWorld social change is not antagonistic to their needs and should be supervised by the winners of capitalism making the biggest winners of the status quo playing a leading role in the latter’s reform. Going back to Hilary, she realises very quickly that while she learns effective tools to solve corporate problems, these tools are not all obvious cure-alls across domains. She starts doubting if that social message, however noble, was not actually a way for top firms’ recruiters to capitalise on the trend for social betterment among elite students. In an ironical twist AG stressed that not content to replace government as the main agent of social change, MarketWorld advises it on how to run countries better as demonstrated by Obama’s closeness to Mckinseyites and his predecessor’s passion for Goldman Sachs alumni. The fact that these business agents of change, notably in the financial sector, having optimised everything and created fewer jobs through automation, layoffs, offshoring and dynamic scheduling while reaping great spoils for themselves along the way did not prevent them from being the self-appointed agents of social change and be accepted as such simply because they could solve problems well. Hilary, her doubts about really being groomed to change the world increasing (was she not a bit naive one might ask) ended up working in the McKinsey team Obama hired to work on his plans for a foundation, a fact that both silenced and conjured her doubts on business and social change. In the end even tough she was conflicted (though still admitting her role at McKinsey also carried prestige and lifestyle that she was not oblivious to), the work was exciting at many levels and she joined the Obama Foundation full-time allowing her to focus more squarely on doing good, even if in a very business-like way given the foundations…of the Foundation.

We then discover a number of MarketWorld examples in action. The common feature shared by all these MarketWorlders, to different degrees, is their belief that business itself is an important agent for good and societal change. Even if one could argue that the inventors and subsequent developers of the PC and internet did change the world, business as a direct force of societal change may not be a universal value in our times beyond making lives of users of products and services more efficient and pleasurable. AG introduces us to Dallas-based Stacey Asher and the world of business executives in top segments, like in her case hedge fund management, who have an epiphany (she in an orphanage in Africa) and decide to go and do good – again the business way, setting up a charity-like hedge fund to help the needy, she in the realm of fantasy sports where football teams are now stocks with proceeds going to the winners’ favourite charities. We then read about Justin Rosenstein, not even thirty, already a Silicon Valley star, having helped start Google Drive and being the co-inventor of the Gmail chat before inventing the dreadful “Like” button on Facebook (he may not be sure about his exact legacy on the latter). Justin who lived very modestly and was deeply spiritual and keen on “values” did not know what to do with his Valley wealth (though he still lives in a California-flavored communal residence) and decided to set up a new company that would connect people through work collaboration software to companies like Uber, Airbnb and Dropbox, thus “doing good” and changing people’s and workers’ experiences if not lives . We then discover Emmett Carson, a young African American who came from the Southside of Chicago focused on “social justice” a terminology too close to “win-losey” for the Valley where he had moved to advise tech entrepreneurs on the matter that he retitled his focus as being on “fairness”, which was better accepted. In doing so Carson understood that “if no one questioned the entrepreneurs’ fortunes and their personal status quo, they were willing to help” so they could also change the world in ways that had their buy- ins.

Here AG makes us discover the beauty of the “win-win” (the fourth commandment or habit of Stephen Covey’s opus named “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People” and how they should think) promoted by “philantrocapitalists”. Win-Winism, that is rooted in Adam Smith’s social benefits of selfishness, is the mantra of the wealthy do-gooders and brings with it things like social enterprises, social venture capital, impact investing, benefit corporations, double and triple bottom lines, shared value theories of business’s enlightened self-interest, give one-get one products and the likes, all centred on what is good for the winners is good for everyone else. Win-win is also about about giving as it makes you happier and “being selfish and giving”. Win-win looks to be about having its cake and eating it too, more than once, the latest internally minded-win-win having been “Getting Syrians back to work – a win- win for host countries and the refugees”. And all of this against a backdrop of painlessness and promise that what has been very good for me will certainly be good for you who may not have drawn the right set of cards.

We then get a glimpse of one of those elite do gooding gatherings which is the Summit at Sea on a cruise ship and get introduced to a few attendees (many women entrepreneurs among those he describes) and their thought leaders who all seem focused on making sure business itself can bring the most impact and change in the lives of millions in the world. To be sure these gatherings may have the feel of sects as they all vocally and safely express that message, all looking alike in their profiles and win-win aspirations. The Summit at Sea cruise is about having “cascading effects on humanity”, “making friends who are going to impact your pocket books” and while “the boat is not about getting drunk and getting naked. Well it’s sort of about that but it’s also about social justice”. Then AG presents Pishevar a veteran Valley venture capitalist who would have trained Uber’s founder Travis Kalanick in the art of LA clubbing (indeed picking clubbing clothes for him, the bio detail being rather odd) but would see himself as a key architect in the prolongation of life (living longer and healthier of course) right at the corner of the next few years, encouraging all not to take risks (very un-business-like) physically at least so they stay alive to experience the new age. Pishevar and other like him insist they are “rebels” disrupting what is not well in everybody’s life, again stressing the key role of business in win-win changes to alter distant individual conditions while preserving the bigger societal one. As such the two companies he backed, Uber and Airbnb, are shown as disrupters of “monopolies” and providers of other choices for all, even though they ran into myriads of problems with their stakeholders prompting radical changes and a less messianic approach. These live examples are part of a never- ending succession of stories dealing with the do well-do good crowd of entrepreneurs and their thought leaders who give words and ways to the do gooding win-win elite and their galaxies.

The chapter on “thought leaders” is quite interesting as it deals with a core group of the MarketWorld galaxy. AG offers an enlightening comparison of the older, critical though demised public intellectuals like Yin & Yang and now deceased Gore Vidal and Bill Buckley vs. the newer, systemically non-disruptive but fashionable thought leaders like Yin & Yang Thomas L. Friedman and Niall Ferguson. Basically these thought leaders who come from academia or various softer corners of business provide views, usually non-threatening to the status quo built by their elite followers and backers, on how to better lives and also the world. AG provides us a real tour of the new “profession” and how many thought leaders gradually accepted to forget about their once critical approach of society to be part of the MarketWorld tour where they get paid handsomely to do speeches or talks (Niall Ferguson, the well known historian, who understood the power of communication more than most of his academic peers, makes USD 50,000 to 75,000 by speech or talk). Many thought leaders who command hefty fees for their talks happily paid by business attendees so they know how to live better lives, feel better about their success and change the world the win-win way, often start becoming such Market World beacons by stumbling into the limelight realising how easy MarketWorld participants will pay them for feel good stories devoid of culprits. All of them emphasise solutions to improve the system but not to change it due to the fact that attendees and backers are it. So the focus of the thought leaders is squarely on fighting poverty and not the less than backer-welcome “inequality”. Reading AG, one would feel that anybody can be a thought leader as long as one already publishes anything widely read and works through agents who sell their clients on the speaking and talking tours (note on the inside book cover: AG has also an agent which is happy to book him for “select” engagements).

We then travel through the worlds of investment banks and strategy consulting firms and their “protocols” which can be applied to “fight poverty” with McKinsey and Bain being leading examples of AG’s chapter heading that “arsonists do make the best firefighters” in our MarketWorld times. As a former “arsonist” myself, I would argue that the tools one learns at these elite firms are indeed very applicable to managing one’s life and likely to be quite relevant to addressing efficiently mega- issues such as reducing poverty. These McKinsey protocols (Read Ethan Rasiel’s illuminating “The McKinsey Mind”) are in the same vein as and a natural extension to what good colleges teach students so they can “think”, something I notice when observing my young strategy consulting associate daughter when managing her own life. AG points out that the leading advisers to corporate clients which have cemented our system and helped craft what has become a very “winners take all” field are often the ones joining and leading do-gooding platforms, these having usually been founded by billionaire philanthropists having created their wealth through market-astute and well-timed business endeavours. AG takes the example of the Soros Open Society Foundations and especially the Economic Advancement Foundation whose CEO was ex-McKinsey, Goldman Sachs and “extractor” Rio Tinto though had a peculiar Mongolian musicology scholar background in his early days. Taking the example of a Soros foundation is incidentally and unwittingly very interesting as George Soros is not just the 1992 British Pound killer but also someone who tried to change things for the better concretely in Hungary and throughout Central & Eastern Europe and is also subjected to direct and overt antisemitic rants from the likes of Victor Orban to Facebook’s now fired lobbying firm (read FT’s Rana Foroohar’s “Facebook puts profits before democracy” on 19th November). AG’s point however is that taking the master’s tools to dismantle his house is rather peculiar, even if one can see the value and efficiency of the tools that could be deployed for other goals than creating inequalitarian wealth in the first place.

We then go to the world of foundations to see that they were despised when the titans of the early 20th century, like Carnegie or Rockefeller, set them up as they were considered too obvious tools of the plutocrats of the day. Times changed and the many foundations funded by early and modern tycoons focused on improving the lives of many like The Ford foundation and are now seen as the tools of goodness in modern societies. We focus on Darren Walker, the President of the Ford Foundation, a gay African American poster child of the American dream come true, who wants to change his focus from the doing good to alleviate poverty to making his donors focus on the roots of inequality that led to poverty, wanting to force them to look at the origin of their wealth and what could be done to change the system rather than curing its ill developments. We know more about his high profile donors like the Tisches or Sacklers who are engaged in huge philanthropy but whose fortunes also relied in part upon cigarettes or addictive drugs (some key donors like Laurie Fisch being conflicted but not yet ready to be the odd one out to contest the “status quo”). As we follow Darren addressing his audience comprising mostly junior executives at private equity firm KKR, his new mantra does not register as they too prefer to focus on cementing the success of their early careers so they can, one would hope, donate later some of the proceeds of their privileged existence, following the earlier Andrew Carnegie who thought it was fine to maximise one’s financial rewards through business activities so one could then donate lavishly later rather than being less inequalitarian in the first place (Carnegie, who surprisingly was much in favour of steep inheritance tax as he wanted to promote donating most of one’s wealth when alive, could condone on one hand activities that would cut costs and jobs so his bottom line would be higher while making sure that the excess financial rewards resulting from these selfish capitalistic policies would be donated…).

In what I think is the most powerful and relevant part of his book (also as it touches upon the raison d’être of Desperate Measures), AG then leaves the “do gooding” arena and the sheer win-win mantra to focus on the global elite itself and its struggles as of 2016, especially post-Brexit and even before the unlikely Trump ascent, to understand and then deal with the populist outbreak globally. We focus on the Clinton Global Initiative that was launched in 2005 by Bill Clinton and was modelled on the Davos’s World Economic Forum albeit on a smaller scale but focused on world changing projects and sponsor/attendee commitments. In other words tangible deeds beyond just feel-good words. The CGI took place for 12 years during “UN Week” in New York, that is during the United Nations general assembly week when all the heads of state would congregate to the Big Apple. CGI quickly presented itself as the alternative to the public, governmental way of solving world problems right at the time of the colossal state flop exposed by the management of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Every year the center of gravity of UN Week shifted from the UN itself to CGI as it attracted all the private and public world decision-makers in a Bill Clinton-engineered drive from solving problems away from exclusive government, public service and collective action to the markets via partnerships (key word) among entities private and public. Over 12 years (the last one was in 2016 as Hillary was deemed to go to the White House) CGI inspired 3,600 commitments, improving 435 million lives in 180 countries (a statistic that AG stressed was not easily verifiable). A good example of the CGI business-focused approach on win-win is exemplified by the subject of women’s equality or gender diversity where panels were filled by corporate ladies and men at the expense of feminist intellectuals and fighters for the cause. In typical CGI fashion, a key topic like women’s equality would be packaged in a win-win approach as it was not just the right thing to do, but also the business-smart thing to do given its USD 28 trillion market opportunity.

This CGI gathering of the MarketWorld elite meeting with state leaders was described by Niall Ferguson, a regular, as the “tribe of the rootless cosmopolitans” representing the “the everywhere companies” facing the ire of the “somewhere people” in other words the “One world” vs. the “place”, illustrating a conflict not only involving the rich vs. the poor even if that division could also apply in the new confrontation. As of mid-2016 the focus of CGI attendees was on that new divide and how to manage if not to solve it. Their main initial reaction was that the key problem was that they might have done a bad job of selling “One World” and its open borders, globalisation, technical progress, trade, rule by data and indeed MarketWorld supremacy. To follow AG’s approach, it is is interesting to note that the debate had gradually moved from “doing good” and “how to” to the roots of poverty if not yet inequality as CGI attendees were not yet ready to challenge the system that led to populism and from which they benefitted.

Dani Rodrik from the Harvard Kennedy School, though working from an elitist beacon (and a cosmopolitan himself as being a Turkish-born American), started to say that globalisation should not jut be rescued from the populists but also from its cheerleaders, its new model having put democracy to work for the global economy instead of the other way around. Jonathan Haidt, from NYU’s Stern School of Business, stated that “the new cosmopolitan elite acted and talked in ways that insulted, alienated and energised fellow citizens particularly those having a predisposition to authoritarianism, adding that “globalists were utopians, believing in change” and “the future and that anything that divides people into separate groups or identities is bad; removing borders and divisions is good”. Clearly CGI attendees knew what the problems were but did not know how to address them lest they broke the system. This section of the book is quite key also in helping understand the great divide and the populist outbreak, which is triggered not by poverty but by identity even if the two are linked (incidentally one of the great criticisms one hears of the globally-minded win-win fixation of the elite is that it is focused on exotic, far away lands and not on deprived areas back at home to help fellow citizens).

One of the worries expressed by Bill Clinton himself was actually whether this populist anger against the elite (be it bi-coastal or urban, this across the West) would not lead to a form of elite secession that would leave the left outs even more behind. At the same time, AG reports his presence at a panel comprising market reformers Mauricio Macri, Matteo Renzi and Sadiq Kahn where the latter as Mayor of London, just post-June 2016 British Referendum on the EU, would note that London had voted massively Remain as expected for a prosperous place but that its superior economic status and well-being also benefitted the rest of the UK thus following the win-win scenario, this in spite of London being clearly today a cosmopolitan city for the privileged few be they professionals, investors and/or residents (including the absentee kind for the latter) as some of us know only too well. AG goes at length providing many examples of the disconnect between the globalists and their populist foes noting that global CEOs do not deal with local issues and do need votes, solving problems outside and beyond politics, particularly locally where identity and related issues matter to the residents. It is notable that while well-meaning CGI attendees were debating reacting to populism they did so within themselves in a safe environment with none of the populist propagandists or their followers present (one could argue that the presence of a Nigel Farage or a Marine Le Pen, all acutely vocal and perpetually electorally-focused, might not have resulted in a constructive debate).

AG spent some time on Bill Clinton and his last CGI valedictorian address in September 2016. He then made a passionate plea for people to make the right choices and opting for “bridges over walls” to reflect the CGI mantra, an admirable globalist dream though also itself intolerant of other dreams focused on identity and “the place” however baselessly politically hijacked today for short-term electoral purposes. In doing so Clinton framed the “choices” as not hearing the case for communities wanting to resist the globosphere and smeared at for favouring resentment and difference. Clinton would suffer as Hillary would lose to DT but also as his globalist concerns (so far from his Yale Law School days and early political career) were repudiated by an “America First” campaign or what he saw as the rising conflict between “inclusive cooperation” and “tribal nationalism”, even mentioning the shaping of a long and strange third world war that would actually be a global civil war of epic proportions. In an interesting wink to the lecture circuit and the thought leaders, Clinton stated that he had made (in late 2016) 649 paid speeches since leaving the White House and paid 50% in taxes while giving most of the rest to poor people who needed help, including some of his own family for their medical bills, adding that he took the money from rich people “and that unlike Robin Hood, I didn’t have to hold an arrow on ’em”. (Don’t we miss Bill and the optimistic 1990s?).

Going back to his very core topic, AG finally gave us an interesting viewpoint of an opponent of MarketWorld in the person of Chiara Cordelli, an Italian political philosopher at the University of Chicago who had co-authored “Philanthropy in Democratic Societies”. Chiarelli was attending a panel discussion hosted by a leading hedge fund philanthropist who was also willing to deal with the book’s critical views of modern day “philantrocapitalists”. One of the panellists was none other than Sanford Weil, the maker of Citigroup and the ardent repealer of the Glass-Steagall Act pre-financial cris, whom all who met him know his strong personality. Weil was never keen on government, preferring the private sector involvement, to sort out the ills of the world, this notwithstanding for some his role alongside others in triggering the great financial crisis that led to a massive state bailout of Citi and the banking sector, making now rich people like him having to “step in” as a do gooder as government was broke. Cordelli at some point replied to Weil that “the government is us”. Following the panel, Cordelli reflected on the role of the “very rich” and MarketWorld to address public problems which she saw was like “putting the accused in charge of the court system”. She objected to the fact that the global elite did not see see why so many people in the world needed there help in the first place and whether their actions contributed at all to that. She felt that MarketWorld’s actions, however effective, did not seem to compensate for any harm done, even if unwittingly. She saw a difference among culprits, the worst group marked by “direct complicity” being those having campaigned against inheritance tax, the tax avoiders and the creators of low wages and precarity so common in our gig economy while the better group comprised those who “lived decent lives and attempted to make lives slightly better through the market”. She saw in all these types of efforts not one single moral act with helping but two through a parallel act of acceptance of a system all winners benefitted from, making these elite characters look, in an arguable image, like the owner of a painting who later finds out it had been stolen and has an obligation to return it to its rightful owner, adding that by doing a relatively modest bit of good while doing nothing about the larger problem is akin to keep the painting. Trying to be balanced, she argues that “not every bad thing in the world is your fault if you fail to stop it” though that citizens of a democracy are collectively responsible for what their society allows and have a duty towards those it systematically fails, the burden falling more heavily on those most amply rewarded by the ultimately arbitrary set of societal arrangements. She sees the “winners” as bearing responsibility for the state of the institutions and for the effect they have on others’ lives as we are nothing without “society” (that also allows for a stable environment critically enabling business to thrive) that indeed protects the rights of all without any domination by others. She sees society as giving the “framework for hedge fund managers as well as violinists or tech entrepreneurs to exist” as they indeed can live in a civilisational and regulated infrastructure that is taken for granted. Her solution (a concept keen on MarketWorlders) rather than focusing exclusively on private initiative is to return to politics as the place where we go to shape the world, which MarketWorld might argue is already represented by the likes of Michael Bloomberg, the real mix of a billionaire, philanthropist and keen politician.

While some chapters might be superfluous or repetitive, the book makes for an entertaining read if somewhat tedious at times so grating the description of the elite characters, clearly done on purpose, can be repulsive as if leading the reader to go for revolutionary pitchforks. The book is very rich, almost too much if that were possible. It contains a deep mine of facts though sometimes making for an arduous reading in relation to fluidity. Looking at the core tenet of the book, I am not sure I buy the argument that wealthy people should not try to do good as it serves also their purpose of feeling better and maintaining the status quo and that the younger generations, even at elite universities, should not think about philanthropy even if crafted along a business minded path. It seems to me that the elite wanting to contribute or “to give back” is good in itself and that it is also fine if it helps them feeling better or maintaining the world as we know it. While I also believe in doing good via more democratic and government-related ways, this should not stop the business and entrepreneurial elite from helping improving things along the way even if they have far more benefitted from the system than others. Would we all be better off if the elite including the Bill Gates of this world and their foundations were not “engaged”? Would we be better off if we left the doing good to government only? And going to the core of the matter, would we better off without capitalism which has created these elites as well as its resulting inequalities and if yes what would AG offer us as a viable alternative route short of going the phalanstery way? I am afraid that we live in an imperfect, capitalist but improvable world that has the merit of working, admittedly more for some than others, and that alternatives are non- existent in practical terms. What if the Utopians were not the globalist MarketWorlders but those who are against the system however imperfect and inequalitarian though free enterprising we know? I believe we should fight to reduce poverty and inequality together within the system that we know as it has also the most positive features that we can hope for including freedom and innovation even though it indeed creates an elite that also over time can be self-perpetuating but which may also be a form of a lesser evil.

It is true that some very wealthy entrepreneurs may lose a sense of reality but that does not mean that they are all bad people. The fact that they wish to protect their gains and wish to appear as benevolent is only all too human. I believe that it is important to develop a nuanced approach to this topic of doing well while doing good. I would naturally see those wealthy entrepreneurs who think that business in itself brings goodness as delusional and trying to find shelters for their guilt or covers for their greed. Business by itself is about the bottom line and making entrepreneurs wealthy by serving the needs of customers who buy their goods and services. I see those who genuinely wish to develop a win-win outcome as well intended and see no reason why they should not, knowing it will require a social effort to do good and that business in itself is not enough to do good. I see wealthy entrepreneurs who set up independent foundations and part away with a substantial part of their wealths, the epitomes being Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, as the real leaders of the genuine win-win game through meaningful deeds to indeed change the world, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation being a game changer in that respect not only for its peer group but also for whole continents and human ailments. Today the top eight billionaires control as much wealth, six of them tech titans, as the bottom half of the world population so have the means to change lives and be impactful. Yet for one Bill Gates and his eponymous Foundation the current leader of the pack, Jeff Bezos, even if involved in charitable activities, pales in comparison in what he “gives back”, arguably preferring to change people’s lives by giving them a better on-line buying experience though by the same token not pretending to be a goodness game changer. Interestingly enough, Bill Gates, ever the gentleman tycoon, was strangely very laudatory of this book, while a potential “class” target of AG, and wrote a stellar support for it: “In Anand’s thought-provoking book his fresh perspective on solving complex societal problems is admirable. I appreciate his commitment and dedication to spreading social justice”. Bill Gates is definitely coming across as a good man (or, having read AG, could be he very cratfy after all?).

It is very hard to know what AG thinks and whether the book is an activist’s pamphlet or a mere account. At the very least his “critique” should be more clearly stated as reflecting an insider’s and not just an observer’s account, this not taking away that his rich book is a very enjoyable and thought-provoking read. If cynical one could be forgiven for wondering if AG did not find a clearly controversial subject so he could write an engagingly differentiated book on it fulfilling his destiny as a thought leader (even if potentially a risky venture given his critical focus), the very role he seems to castigate in his writings even though he is very part of MarketWorld himself. It should be a moot point as, even if he is indeed part of MarketWorld, he would be entitled to criticizing the current “system” though by the same token should then also offer systemic alternatives, even if likely utopian, focused on replacing capitalism as the roots of all evil. In all fairness, AG stresses the “Cordelli solution” as a possible start and somewhat back to basics way to deal with the societal issues at stake, which could also involve the joint partnership of politics and government taking back some of the lead with MarketWorld more in a critical and well-funded supporting role, which the latter could live with as not lethally system threatening and quite realistic not to mention self-preserving as more politically astute. To go back to an old book note, perhaps we need more RFKs and not just wealthy tech entrepreneurs to show up and take the lead.

Warmest regards,

Serge

 

Serge Desprat- 27th November, 2018 (Prague)

 

And what if Ms. May were after all… the new Machiavelli of our times

24-11-18

Dear Partners in thought,


Even though we should laud the sincere efforts to craft a partnership post-Brexit, why is that the UK and the EU are on the path to signing a deal that both know will not have the British Parliamentary votes on 10th or 11th of December as if avoiding a reality check? What if Ms. May, an erstwhile mild Remainer, were not actually and self-sacrificially exhausting all avenues so a second referendum, which might have been gradually and logically her secret, never admissible objective and would meet a very understanding EU, be indeed the only way out short of a no deal abyss nobody wants? Even if the unlikely fruit of changing circumstances, there could not have been a craftier plan as “The Prince” from Florence would agree. 

Warmest regards,
Serge     

Serge Desprat- 24 Nov, 2018 (Prague)

Waking up from the Brexit nightmare

15-11-18

Dear Partners in thought,

While being-non British and would have been Remainer, it is a deeply heart-breaking experience to see the unfolding of the current cabinet and parliamentary process regarding the British approval of the Brexit deal with the EU. It looks like straight from a parallel world with a “dead on arrival” deal and its cohort of micro-tragedies put forward that gets support neither from the Leavers nor from the Brexiters. It is hard not to admire the Churchillian resilience of the PM even if it is clear the deal would leave the UK leaving the EU worse off and the odds are that she will not politically survive, leaving many new avenues ranging from a leadership contest to a general election. It is clear that the hyper-sensitive rationale for a second referendum that would ask the right questions and be based on facts rather than promises is strengthened whatever the strong emotions at stake. The democratic will of the people should indeed be respected although as much as their right to review two and half years later such a controversial move that will impact generations to come, at a time when facts are better known and when the mood of the British public has indeed changed. As a staunch promoter of the EU and regardless of any final outcome, I can only wish my friends in Britain, a country that I know and admire, to find the right and peaceful way forward for them as we also need to work well together… as Europeans.
 
Warmest regards,
 
Serge
 
 
Serge Desprat – 15th November, 2018 (Prague)
 
 
 
 
 

Patriotism vs. nationalism – Why words matter

13-11-18

Dear Partners in thought,
h
While celebrating the end of WW1 in Paris among the longest list of heads of states, President Macron stressed a key note befitting the moment and our times. He stressed patriotism vs. nationalism making words matter as they should and giving the defenders of Western liberal values a crucial tool in the fight against the rise of populism. Words indeed matter. Patriotism is a positive and natural feeling reflecting the pride and love for one’s country’s history, culture and, yes, identity. Nationalism, especially in our times, while including some attributes of patriotism in the eyes of many of today’s nationalists and populists, also conveys feelings of isolationism, retranchement and xenophobia, all ingredients that do not bode well for any future and subtract rather than add to the “wealth of nations”.
 
Walter Russell Mead, the famed American historian just pointed out in the WSJ that patriotism was a Western European universal concept and that nationalism was a positive force at the end of WW1 in the creation of new countries in the midst of the falls of empires across Central & Eastern Europe. This is right and the Poles, Czechoslovaks and Lithuanians do remember. However it was 1918 and not 2018. Then nationalistic passions were necessary to reach a hard fought nationhood and had been much alive across the region as Alphonse Mucha’s beautiful Slav Epic shows us (on display in Prague’s City Hall until early 2019). Today nationalism is a force not for creating national communities but used very often for domestic political and electoral agendas and also bent on breaking the European project that has made European nations grow in peace and prosper, gradually together, as a community of partners since the 1950s. Nationalism today is also a phenomenon (some would also say a tool) much liked by certain countries that do not want to see Europe acting as a bloc while we live in an age of blocs while remaining patriots and proud of our own specific roots and history.
 
Macron struck the right tone, reminding us that words matter. He also gave a new and much revamped life to this old fashioned, often derided notion of patriotism.
 
We should all be patriots focused on the core values that made our nations if we are to succeed together and find a way to counter the easy rise of an ill-thought nationalism and its populist cousin.
 
Best regards,
 
Serge Desprat
 
 
PS: I think the dichotomy between patriotism vs. nationalism is also very apt for the “indispensable country” we all want to see back.

 

Serge Desprat- 14th November, 2018 (Prague)