13.1.26
Dear Partners in Thought,
As much is written about the amazing post-Venezuela “James Bond” operation and the Donroe doctrine (I like to facetiously call the Duckroe doctrine), I thought it was interesting to think about what could be its impacts in terms of geostrategy, especially for Europe, as we potentially enter a new and challenging era.
Europe has relied on America for its defence for 80 years since the end of WW2 that ensured a clear Western leadership for the US, bringing it massive benefits, even if easily forgotten by the current White House. It is clear that Europe needs now to strengthen its own defence, as it will do, while working on maintaining the best possible Transatlantic alliance through NATO, even if dealing with the occasional strategic American moves from another age at least until their mid-terms in November. However, it is useful to see what could happen, also from a European standpoint, with impacts on the US, if Washington were to keep going down the globally dangerous and self-hurting path it showed in the last few months.
It is clear that America’s move against the Maduro regime, while being imperialistic in nature due to the nature of regime change, set a precedent for America (even if the Grenada and Panama operations are remembered). Putting aside the wide agreement that Maduro was a dictator also involved in very bad activities and the main oil reason for the drastic move, it is clear that such an operation puts the US in a different light as a country that upheld and promoted the vanishing international legal principles that mostly drove our world or indeed the West for decades. So, while the Donroe doctrine is clear about America “controlling” its Southern Hemisphere, at times enlarged up North, it creates serious potential conflicts, also with traditional allies like Europe. The desire to annex Greenland for security purposes could be a start of a new “America First” superpower and the end of the strongest alliance the West has ever known. In some ways, it would show that Trump and Putin are moved by the same imperialistic flavour, also not thinking about the costs to their own people, which may be a sad and unexpected reality for them too.
Europe is now waking up to a new world and will gradually strengthen itself in defence and related sectors as its populations will gradually see the dangers they could face with a return of history. Some education and sound messaging will naturally be needed so the new world, away from social media and video games, is fully understood before it is too late. History will tell. It is useful to think about the impact of an America First approach to Europe and what would happen in terms of strategic repositioning.
A key impact of Trump’s America First policy could be for Europe to focus on creating a sounder partnership with China. Even if China is not a Western style democracy, Xi is first and foremost a pragmatic leader, all the more in their relatively challenging economic times. While there are always invasion noises about Taiwan and the West should put the right pressure on Beijing, Xi has nothing to gain from pursuing an existential and historical quest that would only would bring havoc. It is also clear that protecting Taiwan could be a tool for cementing a partnership with China, the upside being more important for Beijing than rewriting history going back to 1949. Such a European move, that would be seen as extreme in nature, would only parallel the America First one if it lasted.
A second facet of Europe’s strategic repositioning would be to work with Britain on doing a sound Brexit reset as the Starmer government would like, this even if it is a complex and hard issue, also given the current political polls. It is clear that a majority of Britons see today the 2016 referendum as a mistake that was fuelled by the personal ambitions of a few politicians. The EU has never been a perfect body and will always need to adjust its rules and ways to be more efficient and fit the evolving times, but it is a sheer fact that Europeans will be stronger “together”, also if an America First era were to keep going. It is clear that a populist Trump may actually have hurt the position of Reform’s Farage via his imperialistic drives which makes a lonely Britain more at risk. On a funny note, Brussels in reset discussions with London, would want a “Farage clause” involving a pay-out provision (on both sides) to ensure that a party, that would leave a new agreement, would face – this with the 2029 parliamentary elections in mind and a potential Farage PM, even if populist parties may be weaker even across Europe by then.
A third impact of the America First Trump policies may be that the first political parties to gradually be weakened will indeed be the European populist parties as their own voters may wake up to a changing world led by a leading populist. The main strength of these parties is the hard messaging and their abilities to win votes from disgruntled individuals who are fed up with traditional democratically-minded politicians and slow-moving sound policies. The likely shocks of Trump policies at all levels, but mainly in terms of their own costs of living, might bring some old-fashioned and forgotten realism into their thinking and indeed voting.
A fourth facet of the impact of an America First could be for some countries, including those in the Trump imperial America in Central and South America, to get closer to Europe. It is clear that Mexico would be open to it while the Mercosur agreement with the EU, which took decades to be signed, but was concluded in a matter of recent weeks (even if not all EU countries, like France, were totally happy) shows an unmissable sign that countries, that may not oppose the US frontally, are reacting through astute diversification drives as seen with Latin America even if many will argue about this, all the more in Washington. Clearly Canada, which is close to the EU, has already taken that European road, with a clever PM who used to manage the UK’s central bank and was very clear with Washington about what mattered.
These are only a few examples of what could and will happen if an America First era were to last and destroy many features of the “old world” order, like globalisation or NATO. Some countries will potentially be more at risk than others, like Ukraine (that will clearly be supported by Europe if only for its own defence) while others, like Russia, would enjoy the new era allowing them to keep existing as the US would keep withdrawing from Europe. It is of course hard to understand why the Trump administration does not grasp the dangers of an America First policy, which may be linked to the mediocre executive leadership all can see today but it is a fact that requires action, all the more from the part of Europe. It is indeed sad to be where we are as America reaches its 250th anniversary and it forgets its roots.
It should be clear that I take no pleasure in stressing these potential impacts and passing for anti-American, which I never was. This country helped me become who I am in my twenties with its values and principles that were always sound. America was never perfect (too many guns at home, a clear focus on money first, a high cost of education) but was overall a great country, which its movies with the likes of John Wayne and Gary Cooper had shaped my childhood. I would therefore wish for the Trump administration to see the light (as more and more Republican officials now do) and naturally lose the mid-terms in November, so we can gradually go back to sound Western sanity – all while Europe keeps being more autonomous and a better partner in defence.
Warmest regards,
Serge
Desperate Measures 