32-1-25
Dear Partners in Thought,
Trump is quickly changing America in terms of foreign policy approach by threatening allies with new isolationist and “America First” strategic and economic policies, in what is seen (at best) as an expression of great power in transactional ways. Trump is clearly seen as no longer focusing on benevolent Western leadership that served his country very well for generations since WW2. In doing so, he risks harming the core interests of his country and citizens, the latter who may feel it when retail prices rise in supermarkets, and through the lack of manpower in key sectors like agriculture via general mass deportations. All while federalism is withdrawing at many funding and regulatory levels, focusing on ideology more than sheer impact. As is often the case in America, money will prevail – if not greed this time – as, while core MAGA voters will be gradually forgotten once key early populist decisions have been announced and potentially implemented, the real winners, probably of a short-term nature, will be Big Tech and the flexible Wall Street crowds. It is also possible that many educated Americans, keen on the old ways of their country, may decide to leave it to live somewhere else, like in Europe, which would remind them of better days. And as times go by and Trump and his team keep undermining institutions, democracy as we know it may gradually vanish, as is the case in rising autocracies still providing the cover of democratic tools that no longer apply. In many odd ways, Trump’s move may make the US closer in style to China and Russia while no longer offering the key differentiation that made America the great country it was.
While Europeans, who share so much culturally with America, given the ancestry of the majority of its citizens, will feel abandoned by the once great Western leader, these new times may have positive and indeed needed consequences in making Europe more independent and also stronger in defence. NATO may go on, as it should, even if more focused on transactions with the current White House resident. The decision to stop foreign aid as the leading world provider, mostly focused on the developing world which may save $60bn annually will hurt the relationships and standing of the US globally. One of the consequences of this mega (if not MAGA-induced) change or “aid-quake” will be for some developing countries to find China or even Russia and its few followers, even if harder for the latter, to be tangibly better strategic and tactical partners.
The major Trump damage will be the destruction of the identity and image of America as the world knew it – especially, but not only, Europe and the West – with values and principles that many took for granted and representing the essence of the indispensable country. Pardoning violent “January 6” insurrectionists will forever set the tone of the start of a new era, also at home. America was never perfect but it led by showing what many countries wanted to see as a largely “civilized” modus operandi and indeed a model for all worldwide. It was also defined by going beyond the great power ways that better defined the Soviet Union or today’s China and that Russia tried to stick to in a quasi-existential move, as it kept declining, with the invasion of another country in 21st century Europe. In many ways Trump and his fast-developed but long-built policies are simply making America just another great power with no specific appeal in terms of values and principles. We may all pay a dear price for it, including and especially America itself.
While one may hope that the 2026 mid-terms may change the course of events, it is still a feeling based on America functioning as we knew it. Relying on an electoral turning point like this, as we should, may also be the wrong approach as two years may create too much internal damage, even if we see some institutional and judicial resistance, also from some key American states. It is thus far better for the rest of the West – like Europe, Japan and their allies – to focus on being more independent and indeed much stronger in terms of defence and foreign policy – as always wanted by Trump for the former – and play the transactional game wanted by the new imperial President. We need to engage with Trump’s America and find the most productive partnership we can, hoping for the best and indeed a change in Washington at some point, this without being deluded by false hopes. We also need to support strongly those at home that want to restore the old American win-win ways. However, America today is no longer the America we knew. A new Mount McKinley in Alaska and its reminders of forgotten and different times is making Trump’s point in what matters today for the current US executive power.
Warmest regards
Serge
Desperate Measures 