11–12–24
Dear Partners in Thought,
Like many, it took me two weeks to be able to watch news from the US, so shocked had I been by the Trump election victory I did not think possible, given the man and his style. I would now like to share my thoughts on why it might have happened and what this drastic development means for America and the world we knew, something we can already see.
America was first and foremost known since its creation for its values and principles, even if at rare times not always followed by its leaders and key players. Given his personal history, Trump has no clear values nor principles, which he likely sees as too rigid and thus useless features. Trump 2.0 will then likely be the end of the America we all knew, and with dire consequences, especially for the Western world. At best, he will be compared to Andrew Jackson, the Southern Democratic populist of his day and at that time an “outsider”. Another clearly non-liberal Republican like Ronald Reagan would not recognize his own party today or a leader and indeed a twice-elected President like Trump. It is clear that most Republican elected officials did not see the new age that led to the gradual and stark high-jacking of their party since 2015 coming, but they went with it as, like many might, they enjoy their jobs after all. The wild Trump nominations, that stress obvious need for loyalty (if not, in some cases, retribution) far more than any required competence, already speak for themselves. And then we now also have the announced Day One pardon of all those who stormed the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.
While Trump was to some extent “controlled” by experienced professionals in his first term, it is unlikely he will be in his second, particularly as he clearly found it “annoying”. Hence loyalty first today. Tulsi Gabbard, the choice for Director of National Intelligence, who would oversee 18 intelligence agencies, while a Lieutenant Colonel in the US Army reserve, is also a known pro-Putin individual as shown in her public statements, who also thought Bashar Al-Assad could in no way ever be an enemy of America. Kristi Noem, the Governor of South Dakota and choice for Secretary of Homeland Security, is mostly known for her recent memoirs and her strange killing of her annoying dog, this to expected public uproar. Pete Hegseth, another unknown individual but for his Fox News role, a choice for Secretary of Defense, is a military veteran though also known for his fondness of sexual triangles and a more than serious alcohol consumption style. Kash Patel, the nominee to head the FBI, even if a former federal prosecutor in his younger days, is a QAnon promoter and conspiracy theorist while now being known for his mission to go after Trump’s enemies. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is definitely a “weird” choice for Health Secretary, based on his own visible state of health and anti-vaccine stances (I often wonder what the great Bob would say). As for Matt Gaetz, the self-withdrawn nominee for Attorney General, he could have created a club with Pete Hegseth while also dealing with substance abuse, making his choice almost a Machiavellian one knowing he would not be approved even by a Republican Senate, this making it easier for other doubtful nominees to be. And on top of this, nepotism unsurprisingly comes in with the future Ambassador to France and the Middle East Special Envoy being both fathers-in law of the Trump daughters Ivanka and Tiffany, the former even being a convicted felon. We had already seen that Lara, his daughter-in-law, had secured the co-chairmanship of the Republican National Committee, ahead of the presidential election. It is hard not to laugh and feel it is part of a Hollywood comic movie. But then it is not a bad dream and shows what a Trump 2.0 will be, even if, sadly, people get used to his ways and too many seem not to mind as time goes by.
Trump 2.0 may be a return to another era where globalization or also peace through trade no longer matters. Generations come and go and history often repeats itself as people in charge have no direct memory. We are moving back to the equivalent of the 1930s where isolationism prevailed with the direct impact we saw, while today is also a withdrawal from a post-Cold War era where nations were more directly involved with each other. This gradual move is often the result of a few personal key agenda-led individuals or spokesmen-leaders, like Trump in America, as the majority of Britons would today agree when having a dispassionate take on the now old and indeed bold Brexit move and its impact.
How we came to that sad point is worth reviewing. Looking at American history, no President looked like Trump. He is basically a well-known and failed real estate mega-investor, having initially inherited about USD 400m from his father to build an eventually collapsing empire once represented by the Trump Tower. His TV career and “The Apprentice” show helped Trump to salvage his reputation while remaking some of its wealth and eventually considering a new political avenue. He was likely the original populist who made it via elections in 2016. His approach was to gradually focus on the resentments of those who felt that society had not given them a fair deal – a recipe now seen across democracies, all the more in Europe – this even if hugely remote from them socially, something that did not seem to be an issue for anyone. This focus on his core base of resentful voters’ anger did not prevent Trump (at times the curious alliance of interests not really noticed by them) to artfully seek the backing of many Wall Street and Silicon Valley billionaires, who were driven by their needs for less regulations and happy to fund Trump’s campaign to huge levels as Elon Musk and others did. Trump was also naturally helped by the historical rise of social media and their contents with known goals of satisfying what their listeners would want to hear more than providing true unbiased food for thought. The problem with populists like Trump (Meloni In Italy possibly being the only exception today) is that they are usually good at grabbing vote these days but terrible at managing governments, not being really trained or naturally gifted for that role. And then populists are naturally fond of “loyalty first” teams of individuals, as in dictatorships, leading to the kind selected by Trump 2.0 as secretary nominees.
While quite a few on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley are also flexible in terms of values and principles as long as their interests are preserved, it is also fair to say that all the “common” Trump voters are not devoid of them, even if many beyond the MAGA-hat wearing crowd feel an existential drive fueled by perceived resentment and unfairness combined with an anti-elite sentiment. Some of these voters, especially non-college educated men, even including young ones, did not like where they felt America had been sliding into, this also promoted by quite a few in the Democratic Party. Combined by what they felt as the impact of too much “internationalism” and its societally-induced weaknesses (historically an Anglo-American cultural fear of a quasi-satanic conspiracy dating back from the Reformation) their main anger, which can be understood, may be summed up in one word: “Woke” or an extremist and forced push for what is seen as diversity. Even corporate America is indeed going through times when employees stressing that intelligence and excellence should prevail in role and job selection during corporate meetings can be sent for two months of online diversity education. In some ways, this big trend that started in the late 2010s is the grandson (or grand-daughter!) of the affirmative action where black (sorry – African American) individuals were accepted in top colleges before some Asian students (not white ones yet) with higher grades. Many in the Democratic Party lost sight of the societal impact of woke on sheer American values and principles, mainly focusing on what they perceived as societal fairness the way they saw it. And now, through this excessive approach, they pay a tough price – like we might all do as a result and what it brought us with Trump. While stressing that latter point and somewhat with stupefaction, it is hard to see that Trump was also able to woo many African-American and Asian males, also young, to send him back to the White House, showing the fine actor and persuader he is. Last but not least it would seem, that while many Republican party members were known and kept taking the stage to promote their views, very few Democratic counterparts were seen or even known by the general public, perhaps as President Biden kept the party focus on himself during his term, which can happen with one’s party when being the White House resident.
The problem we have today is now that Trump is back, his focus cannot be on his show business campaigning ways anymore. His core program combining mass deportation and tariffs, will be highly challenging to put in place, with potentially dire consequences even for his own electorate when they are in the shopping mall or cannot find workers for their crops. As for the world, isolationism often combines economic and diplomatic facets that can only hurt American leadership (assuming it still matters at the White House) as well as the Western world and its multifaceted set of alliances, NATO being only a key one, all the more as we experience new wars and unstable developments globally today.
I hear many complaining that Covid or the July Pennsylvania shooter could have spared the world from a Trump 2.0, which is factually true. However, I would still hope that common sense prevails, also thanks to the hopefully more reasonable and experienced US Senate that should concentrate on true American interests and ensure that our world keeps going without a dire but almost natural return of history if Trump is left unhinged. And in true American tradition, let’s also hope for the best and that the Trump “transactional” approach, that may or not redefine US foreign policy, works for all parties including what we called the West and naturally Europe. In the meantime, risk management is becoming an increasingly key feature if I may say with a wink.
Warmest regards,
Serge
Desperate Measures 