1-3-24
Dear Partners in Thought,
As we enter the third year of the invasion of Ukraine, we recently saw a flurry of tough comments from Donald Trump and the GOP on the relevance of NATO for America. Trump recently did something that no President since Harry Truman ever did. He hinted at a possible withdrawal from NATO on the basis that some European members do not commit the 2% of GDP they should, so are riding on the coattails of America. JD Vance, once the “Hillbilly Elegy” author and former but reformed harsh Trump critic, stressed recently that the US had provided a blanket of security to Europe for far too long. Trump’s statement was accompanied by another strange statement that Putin should indeed attack those defaulting NATO members as if there was a clear link between NATO funding and Russian imperialism – all at a time when Russia shows an increased hostility, now tainted of militarism (even if the latter is denied) towards the West. And all of these strong statements are taking place as Ukraine is under attack though, very critically, in the context of elections in November not only for the US Presidency but also for its Congress. In effect Trump has led the House GOP question the financial support of Ukraine and NATO members reliability – indeed putting the West and its US leadership not to mention credibility at risk – merely for wider domestic political gains and, for some observers, ultimately sorting out most of his legal problems by being back at the White House.
Trump is of course an anomaly in American history and in a recent poll of American history university professors was found to be the worst White House resident ever, Abraham Lincoln winning the top spot. In spite of a previous presidency that can be defended in terms of policies (forget the Iran nuclear deal and Paris COP 15 commitment departures) Trump has now become dangerous as a potential leader both for America and the world. He is a disgrace to America in style today with no limits to insults he can make about his opponents as if his primary base, largely composed of MAGA hat wearers (some likely wearing the Trump golden $399 “No Surrender” sneakers that were all sold in one day and many cannot afford) were his sole focus. His history of court cases and 91 indictments is a mere reflection of the leader he would be while disqualifying him from any serious office anywhere in the West – even if strangely but effectively used to shore up support among his “cult” base. Going wildly and erratically against NATO that goes well beyond territorial integrity is not just about Europe as it is about the role of America in the world and tied to all the economic and political benefits derived from this leadership. If the US were to withdraw from NATO it would be the end of the West and thus American leadership leading to the gradual decline of an isolationist America and the rise of countries for which democracy is not there or does not really matter. And, while globalization receded post-pandemic, tensions with China and the Ukraine invasion, it still matters to America and the MAGA voters who would not like to discover the side effects of isolationism and an ill-thought America First on their purchasing powers. Finally talking about who is helping whom, maybe Trump and Mike Johnson should remember that the French helped a nascent America “endure” at Yorktown in 1781 – even if we are all together with the British in the successful NATO family now. And that the only time “Article 5” was called by one NATO member to be assisted by all others was after 9-11.
While the Western world and its leaders rightly condemned Trump for his crazy comments about NATO it should be fair to stress that he may have a point, taken far more artfully by JD Vance in his Financial Times opinion piece dated 21st February on “Europe must stand on its own two feet on defense”. It is true that some European countries have not spent enough on defense matters in recent decades though as the Western world – and indeed Europe – was going through a never-ending period of global peace through trade. Some countries like Germany were even accused of using their historical guilt to devote needed defense funding to the sheer development of its economy – today the third in the world having bypassed a challenged Japan. In fairness the new German focus on defense with a EUR 100bn program announced two years ago marked a change in conjunction with being the leading EU financial supporter of Ukraine in excess of EUR 19bn to date. At the same time the EU recently managed to get a rather Russia-friendly Hungary not to object (given the still-existing strange unanimity rule) to the latest EUR 50bn aid package agreed even if implementation is always too long while tactics on how to best assist Ukraine may differ, creating the occasional spat. It is also clear that the focus on globalization of the last three decades unwittingly led to a resulting weakness in the military industrial base or complex on both sides of the Atlantic. Putin if anything stressed the need for an end to the “business as usual” of the last thirty-five years. His invasion of Ukraine was a wake-up call that history indeed repeats itself.
American domestic politics and an election year do not help. The GOP in Congress seems (for many representatives and fewer Senators – though still 26) to combine weaker support for Ukraine and NATO in a strange demonstration of a parallel world where it ends up supporting Putin and Russian aggression in ways that would make Ronald Reagan scream. While Western unity is key today, we all see unfolding sad developments with a party losing its key foreign policy values and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives taken hostage by a tiny group of extremists and Mike Johnson, a smooth-looking and very Trump-accommodating new Speaker. They simply prefer to back Trump than supporting financially Ukraine (and incidentally Israel in spite of history and the ideological proximity with the Netanyahu government). Trump and his Congress group of followers would rather not give any win to the Biden administration pre-election even if the latest bill supporting Ukraine (also approved by 22 Republican Senators) would also cover a massive new focus on strengthening the border with Mexico, creating a situation that has lost any rationality. Speaker Like Johnson, aware of the stakes, shamefully preferred to opt for a two-week recess than putting the bill to a sensitive but winnable vote while Ukraine was losing a key city on the battlefield. It is also worth remembering that the GOP (albeit a very different one) had been very hard with Obama for seemingly accepting the Crimea takeover by Russia ten years ago. The fact is that the key driver for many in the GOP is to hide behind its hardliners so they can be seen as de facto supporting Trump, all the more when they will also face their own primaries in November where the MAGA base is a key voting bloc. Domestic politics, often at the very personal level, has de facto taken over international affairs rationality and American interests for the sake of seats in Congress.
Notwithstanding the adverse impact of American domestic politicization at play today, it is possible that a perceived American protectorate might have made it easier for Europe to ignore comfortably its own security, also as the threats were not great, all the more as Russia was working hard at remaking itself at all levels in the early 1990s. As the world we knew is drastically changing, there is no doubt that European NATO member states should adhere fully to the membership terms of the organization that ensured their security since 1949. There is no longer any excuse for not reaching the 2% GDP commitment to re-develop a defense infrastructure but also a troop readiness on the ground. While Europe should take the right steps to ensure its defense, as it now will, it should do so in close coordination and partnership with the US inside NATO. There is simply no other way for both Europe and the US to remain strong globally but also individually as the world becomes more autocratic and adventurous in essence.
Warmest regards
Serge
Desperate Measures 