19-12-23
Dear Partners in Thought,
We live in challenging times, with major wars in Ukraine or in Gaza playing out, bringing us back to the worst periods of the 20th century, with globalization and its peaceful features also receding as seen with the increasingly conflictual relations with China. This new era – not so new if we remember the famous line that “History repeats itself” – comes at a time where the West is struggling in terms of leadership due to an America that seems to have lost its values and keeps hurting itself and the Free World it stood for and led for decades. Many columnists, including Americans, recently wondered whether the US was “irreparably off track” with all the implied global consequences.
America is not well, as most Americans would also agree. A recent Gallup poll showed only 20% felt the country was well versus more than 50% 20 years ago, this in spite of US per capita income higher than in Western Europe or Japan, nine of the top 10 most-valuable companies in the world being American (versus four at the end of the Cold War) and a still-unrivalled defense machine. This pervasive feeling, also shared across the Western world, may be partly explained by America’s unsettling approach to its evolving role in the world. The proximity to an overly-intense presidential election is naturally not helping the situation, also given the nature and profile of the two likely contenders.
The America of Reagan that stood firmly as a leader of the West during the Cold War is no longer there, mainly due to domestic political issues that make it forget what it was and should be. No President is ever perfect, but Trump due to his personality, perhaps more than his policies, started changing the game with deep adverse effects on the country and as a result the West (this even if a Republican Congressman strangely stressed recently that one should separate personality and policies when dealing with Trump). One of the key reasons for American and Western pessimism is to be found in its domestic politics and their dynamics today, compounded with a clear worry globally that Trump could come back.
The Republican party of Reagan has been taken over by Trump-influenced and practical hard right extremists, who do not even realize what they stand for and their deep historical disconnect with their own roots, but only wish to grab votes, often very locally. It is not even clear what Trump really believes in, as long as he can increase his polling and is strengthening his fame, this in spite of all the legal issues he is facing regarding January 6, 2021 and his own business enterprises. It is remarkable that many primary voters, even if usually more hard line than regular ones, support someone like Trump given his abysmal personal features that many of them should see as un-American. It is clear that resentment against a perceived out-of-touch “elite”, their own social standing and serious and mismanaged issues like immigration do play a role in crafting their simple views, like in Europe today. In addition, the quality of the politicians seems to have gone down over the years, as many bright individuals prefer to take the business road, as many studies show across the Western world. As for the Democrats, it is a hollow combination of left-wing individuals many who adhere first to inclusion, diversity if not, (to use the word initially invented by right-wing extremists) “Woke” before anything else while there seems to be a very short list of individuals who could be leaders in this party, where Joe Biden is apparently in sole charge, and only the liberal California Governor Gavin Newsom could be seen as a major though differentiated figure. Democrats are simply nonexistent, while the media focus is on outlandish House Republicans like Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor-Greene if not, even if no longer, George Santos or an outlandish primary candidate like Vivek Ramaswamy. Hope is fortunately not lost for the GOP, when seeing the likes of Nikki Haley, even if playing a tactically smart game with Trump believers and of course Liz Cheney, two individuals, who still offer some degree of political system redemption for their party. And there are others like Governor Chris Sununu or Senator Mitt Romney who still stand for the right values behind democracy as we knew them. These individuals may feel very lonely in their party at a time of a ludicrous “retribution” impeachment enquiry process against Joe Biden launched by the likes of Representative JD Vance, the Hillbilly Blues author and once, before being a US Senator, a fierce and then fashionable critic in 2016 of Donald Trump, whom he called an idiot.
The lack of quality of the US political personnel, which one could argue could be seen also in in key European countries is helping the demise of America and its Western leadership. Positions taken notably by House Republicans regarding financial aid to Ukraine risk hurting America’s international standing and its position as leader of the Free World. Not backing Ukraine on the basis that national security should also be managed at home regarding immigration at the Mexican border would risk destroying the democratic West by losing its leader. If Ukraine were to lose the war through lack of US support, Russia might expand its costly imperial fantasies by invading the NATO and EU Baltic state members and even Poland, whatever the risk of a major global conflict. It is noticeable and somewhat redeeming that older GOP Senators and House Representatives, perhaps with a direct memory of the past, are more aware than younger ones, who are more in a perpetual partisan if not extreme mode, about the need to uphold the foreign policy leadership values that made America. One natural step, were Trump to be elected against all rational hopes, would be for him (also given his old liking of Putin) to make the US withdraw from NATO on the grounds of America First and a return to a 1930s isolationism that many of his short-sighted supporters would think would be good for their country (he would now need a Congress majority to do this but anything is possible). Isolationism, that would be a natural step for Trump and has already been felt through some of the tactically protectionist Biden tax policies, would in any case hurt American interests and businesses globally, and as a result the American people, even if many do not see the direct links to their own well-being today.
Getting America back on track and avoiding a global power vacuum will take hard work and require high quality individuals to save the day (or indeed century) in politics, lest a collection of autocracies win the world over. The world has changed with the nemesis of the democratic West not being one single country like the Soviet Union, but a collection of strong and not-so-strong powers with their own different tactical geopolitical interests and a common strategic opposition to America and the West, even if some trading with them in the meantime. America, through its next generation of political leaders, should refocus on its essential global leadership role and the clear benefits attached to it, this for itself, the West and indeed a more peaceful and yet again globalized world focused on trade and prosperity.
While America needs to go back to its roots, it is also key for European countries to adopt realistic policies to preserve democracy at home while making sure voters do not support extreme right parties on the basis of simple solutions for complex issues. European democracies should also take a firm lead and defend their founding principles abroad, while building a stronger Europe, as seen with Britain and EU member states working closely together in supporting Ukraine as if they were again happily part of the same club of old. In this respect the key decision from the EU to start accession talks with Ukraine is a major step even if their voting process should be reviewed so as to avoid the impossibility of providing a key financial package to Kyiv approved by 26 member-states as one member, Hungary, vetoes it on tactical and strategic grounds as if it were de facto an ally of Moscow.
I never thought I would ever need to write a piece like this one. On a very personal note I love America and the “Dream” it offered. My America. I am who I am as America and what it stood for reshaped me in my twenties in the 1980s as I was searching for a future. I still want to hope we can get back to those times, all the more given the needs and risks of our very challenging times.
I wish all of us a Merry Christmas and the Happiest New Year, hoping that our world finally gets back on the right track and Reason prevails.
Warmest regards,
Serge
Note: I wanted to state an addendum to my mid-November Interlude that clearly supported the right of Israel to retaliate following October 7 and eradicate Hamas and its terrorist capabilities, this to defend itself. One month following my Interlude we have reached a stage where the eradication of Hamas is proving arduous, even if its capabilities are likely severed, while the death toll of civilian Gazans and the destruction of the city are horrendous even if not the IDF objective (the mistaken killing of three hostages by the IDF is sadly telling in terms of the intensity of the fights). It is now time for the Israeli leadership to realize that they may be fulfilling Hamas’s grand design of creating a global opprobrium against Israel and stop or reduce meaningfully its military operations, including its indiscriminate aerial bombings. Time should now be focused on how to structure (indeed reconstruct) and manage a future Gaza and re-focus seriously on a peaceful future for the Palestinians and Israel. While there might be some political reasons on the part of the current Israeli leadership to keep its military operations going, the standing of the country in the world and among its allies, even like the steadfast US, will decrease while antisemitism may rise as already seen on US campuses today. This natural addendum would not change the clear right and obligation for Israel, like any other country suffering the same horrific blow, to have responded as it did initially to the atrocities of October 7.
Desperate Measures 