2-11-23
Dear Partners in Thought,
While I was cautious in writing too early on the grave matter, I wanted to share with you twelve points about the Israel-Gaza-Hamas situation that we see evolving in the Middle East, bearing in mind it impacts on the whole world.
1. Netanyahu needed some very tough retaliation (however justified given the October 7 horrors) to try shifting the blame away. A win, however challenging to get, is his only way to try surviving by year-end.
2. The fate of the Israeli hostages remains as fragile as before in spite of the occasional liberations and worsens as thousands of civilian Gaza residents die.
3. Iran, even if not “directly” responsible did everything for October 7 to happen, but in any case, may enjoy the Gaza retaliation to shift the hijab revolution away too, wanting again to be seen as a true Middle Eastern power again, however fragile the regime may be (and indeed is).
4. After 44 years, a regime change may happen in Iran if the latter goes too far, especially with Hezbollah. Tehran seems to know this but is still ambivalent about its next steps.
5. As seen with demonstrations, diplomatic break-ups and even the unacceptable odd terrorist act, it is clear that Israel is hurting itself globally by making the Gaza population unduly pay for October 7 even if to rightly eradicate Hamas. The only way Gaza will ever be rebuilt is if it comes under UN supervision and Hamas is gone.
6. “Over time” the Israeli-Saudi rapprochement may go on as MBS has changed the Saudi MO, wanting to make it a more normal but powerful world player (golf, football, away from oil) thus needing a stable Middle East.
7. The US has played its cards very well – surprisingly. The display of diplomacy and defence was first class. The Truman, Eisenhower but also Carter, Reagan and of course Clinton eras are back. Biden will (should?) eventually benefit from this, leading him potentially to rejig his ticket as he goes.
8. Hamas is indeed going to be erased. One wonders what went through their minds but have they any? They will always stress wanting to put the Big P point back on the map (and will never address the October 7 horrors). It is possible that the PLO will come back to what it once was.
9. It is also clear Israel should have addressed the P question long ago and found a solution if only to avoid enabling big scale terrorists doing an unexpected October 7. It is also sad that Netanyahu got trapped in such a useless coalition of so many populists only seeking votes (lesson to be learned), while allowing settlers of the extremist kind to go way too far as the world was not looking.
10. Putin is curiously “rather absent” from the crisis even if he gained from the (it turns out temporary) Western shift away from Ukraine also as US popular support for Kyiv was “wavering”. He is indeed trapped into naturally backing Hamas/Iran and upsetting Israel given the latter’s earlier cautious stance regarding the Ukraine war and any military equipment support for Kyiv.
11. As shown at the UN, the world finds it hard to deal with a conundrum created by unacceptable horrors of October 7 and the onslaught on so many civilians in Gaza—the latter caused by the Israeli Defence Forces but resulting from a tragic and unforgivable plot from Hamas and de facto their Iranian backers. One can take sides for many justifiable reasons but the whole picture lacks clarity and sanity at any moral level.
12. While globalisation retreated and protectionism rose again as a result of the American-China feud, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the new war in the Middle East bring us back to the forgotten era of the 20th century which most of us thought was long gone forever – making us think that WW3 is no longer an academic matter.
I have limited my points to twelve but the list could be longer, including the impact on our own societies with street demonstrations favouring one specific party, terrorist attacks as seen in Belgium or France, or less lethal but divisive situations on campuses like in America. The situation we see developing today is like another chapter of a book all hoped was finished, but is never-ending—so strong are its ethnic, religious and historical roots for the world.
Warmest regards,
Serge
Desperate Measures 