5-7-23
Dear Partners in Thought,
As we enter the summer holiday season, I thought I would give you a shorter and more concise Interlude, focused on some of the key recent geopolitical developments of our times—indeed not always “fun facts”. I stopped at thirteen, given the special ring to it, but the list could be extended, contested and changing week after week. Will the recent events in Jenin lead to major regional disruption in the Middle East and thus qualify? Should AI, in spite of the many concerns it brings (together with clear benefits), ever be seen as a geopolitical tool or development?
- The Ukraine invasion united the West against Russia more than ever expected, on old-fashioned principles of territorial sovereignty, though focused on its European heart.
- The Ukraine invasion showed Russia failing in the pursuit of illusory imperial ambitions, while suffering unheard of political disruptions, showing deep internal weaknesses, and reverting to old ways of domestic control and erratic nuclear tactics.
- The Ukraine invasion propelled oil production-cutting Saudi Arabia as a major world player in many areas (not only golf) thanks to the impact of Western sanctions on Russian oil and gas fueling its leading world GDP growth in 2022.
- The Ukraine invasion showed a newly-named Global South wanting to be non-aligned to either the West or Russia, while each of its major components pursued its own domestic agenda, and still pragmatically dealing with both (and also China in our times of simmering tensions) on what primarily matters to them.
- China, gradually lost between a thirst for global leadership and socio-economic viability, became a world peacemaker with its involvement in getting Iran and Saudi Arabia to resume diplomatic relations, or wanting to play a role in the never-ending Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
- While declining, the US still leads the world for now but is suffering from self-inflicted wounds such as mass-shootings and social media-fueled existential expressions of extremism, with Donald Trump being a clear example of deepening societal failure.
- The old European powers like France or Britain are no longer the European powers they once were, with the EU being their key existential leadership option (sadly for the latter) and the building of European defense being key, even if NATO keeps going.
- While Germany is slowly changing its attitude to defense matters and its traditional focus on the economy due to Ukraine, it is still wavering in its approach to China, given the importance of this market to its automakers and other industries.
- While Europe is united on Ukraine, Taiwan is usually not seen in the same light as in Washington (but for the Baltic states given the proximity of their own mainland China or Czechia to reverse past politics) and its focus will be on not creating unneeded tensions often driven by domestic US politics.
- Covid, which had, and still has, many unforeseen impacts on society worldwide, did not help diplomacy when it might have been needed, due to sheer distancing and remote communication amongst world leaders.
- While democracy, where it still exists, is challenged by its illiberal versions and vote-grabbing populism (with its easy answers to complex issues), the EU should stop with its unanimity voting system, and adopt a super-majority in its decision-making.
- Globalization is receding, following decades-old corporate investments lost in Russia and the US-China on-and-off warming cold war, and protectionist measures often hidden behind green policies and supply chain de-risking, even if more of a slogan—given the scale and complexity of, and reliance upon, China’s manufacturing make-up.
- AI became an unpredictable existential threat at the “wrong” geopolitical time for the world, while venture capital went further in its gambling “spray and pray” investment approach as previously seen with the crypto and metaverse labels.
Warmest regards,
Serge
Desperate Measures 